Middle East · resolved market
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1c50ca9add301625e2d1022bf3e010360cf1444553f312673d0b9cdaf8283e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed Yes | 18c | 2,264$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.46 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed Yes | 21c | 2,252$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.92 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 11c | 2,168$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.39 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…8720backed Yes | 7c | 2,062$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.01 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,058$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.68 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,550$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,477$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 25c | 1,420$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 79c | 1,401$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.32 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed Yes | 16c | 1,282$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +262.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 24c | 1,185$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.91 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,179$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.41 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 1,173$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,162$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,131$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.13 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 900$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 78c | 803.72$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.5 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed Yes | 18c | 788$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 5c | 749.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 14c | 700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 74c | 699.99$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…c43ebacked Yes | 21c | 684.03$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +428.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed No | 72c | 607.92$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 30c | 580.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.43 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 4c | 550.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 509.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 440$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 19c | 380.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…8be6backed Yes | 29c | 342.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 15c | 327.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…10b0backed No | 73c | 300.59$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 70c | 276.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…9138backed Yes | 4c | 262.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 261.78$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 218.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 210.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 206.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 80c | 160.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed No | 77c | 149.9$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 20c | 146.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 80c | 144$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 22c | 139.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…e45abacked No | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed No | 79c | 126.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 120.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 105.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 18c | 101.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked No | 74c | 98.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…953cbacked Yes | 18c | 90.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 17c | 90.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 55c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…bec0backed Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed No | 79c | 63.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 54.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…c1e3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 21c | 48.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 32.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…aabebacked No | 75c | 32.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.