Middle East · resolved market
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe1b2680389ef9e2d8569b09d103791e8e1d5677487c4044b08d085a80872038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 76c | 4,087$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.52 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 3,716$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.43 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 37c | 2,370$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.69 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 65c | 1,440$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.79 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 32c | 1,389$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.36 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 46c | 1,379$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.49 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 71c | 1,269$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.67 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed Yes | 36c | 1,207$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 1,161$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 61c | 953.13$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.11 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 39c | 823.76$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.44 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes | 42c | 725$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…a9d4backed No | 74c | 673.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 13c | 642.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…501ebacked No | 74c | 601.67$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 544.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 539.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 41c | 460.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.61 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 451.42$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 408.79$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 55c | 389.77$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked No | 60c | 362.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 22c | 299.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70b8…4847backed No | 69c | 288.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 37cpaid | +284.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 257.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…f84cbacked Yes | 52c | 251.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 242.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 222$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 23c | 221.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 37c | 186.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked No | 66c | 169$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 167.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed No | 64c | 156.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked Yes | 34c | 149.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 34c | 148.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 145.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…7328backed Yes | 17c | 138.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes | 35c | 138.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 77c | 128.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked No | 61c | 124.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed No | 66c | 116.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 27c | 111.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 108.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…8c4ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…42c1backed No | 62c | 96.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 29c | 92.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 65c | 90.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…409ebacked No | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +170%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 72c | 72.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…78ddbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 59c | 71.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 64c | 59.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…47c6backed No | 62c | 54.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 61c | 49.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed Yes | 44c | 41.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 34c | 41.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed No | 60c | 41.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 52c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ec…3a5abacked No | 61c | 40.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 73c | 39.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…af95backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked Yes | 39c | 32.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 35cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 48c | 30.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 57c | 29.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 78c | 27.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 40c | 26.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…323ebacked Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…e4b0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…085bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 72c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.