TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6dd…98eebacked No76c4,087$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.5220143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c3,716$2,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.4364339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes37c2,370$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.697248.6%35 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No65c1,440$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.7938237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes32c1,389$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.3648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84f…bc44backed Yes46c1,379$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.495248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No71c1,269$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.677745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a60…2a67backed Yes36c1,207$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.371421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c1,161$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.221,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked No61c953.13$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.1113250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes39c823.76$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.4431241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes42c725$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.253348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…a9d4backed No74c673.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.51656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes13c642.8$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.146060%36 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+125.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3432…501ebacked No74c601.67$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes10c544.6$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.464769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c539.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8942311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes41c460.03$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.615646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+69.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No76c451.42$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4224759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No68c408.79$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5228827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No55c389.77$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4219056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked No60c362.5$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8749023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes26c299.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7848630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes22c299.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.155812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70b8…4847backed No69c288.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.591764.7%11 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.28per pick37cpaid+284.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c257.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.194195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf803…f84cbacked Yes52c251.47$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.652250%11 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c242.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No77c222$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes23c221.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed Yes37c186.34$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697544%33 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No60c170$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked No66c169$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.464555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c167.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9367841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0de…8795backed No64c156.25$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.571338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked Yes34c149.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.57445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes34c148.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No71c145.38$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5312239.3%48 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f14…7328backed Yes17c138.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.281435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfe…bfb7backed Yes35c138.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.69234.3%1 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-88.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No77c128.01$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3217129.2%50 W · 121 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked No61c124.59$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed No64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.372832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed No66c116.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.782356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes27c111.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9929027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes29c108.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.436035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.534234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ad…8c4ebacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414134.1%14 W · 27 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6bc…42c1backed No62c96.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.873268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes29c92.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes21c92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1719449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No65c90.02$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9214945%67 W · 82 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b75…409ebacked No61c75$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.255100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No61c74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.023545.7%16 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+170%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No72c72.89$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4113746%63 W · 74 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3de…78ddbacked Yes14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No59c71.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.243043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes21c70$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.736626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.72642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3d…2ff5backed No60c70$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2812843%55 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfde9…cc30backed No65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.52634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3082…9446backed No64c59.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.434755.3%26 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a0…47c6backed No62c54.96$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.88450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b95…a426backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No61c49.28$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.225726.3%15 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+62%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba62…58e9backed Yes44c41.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.534032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes34c41.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0335921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5dba…d397backed No60c41.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.54134.1%14 W · 27 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+77.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Yes52c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3214249.3%70 W · 72 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ec…3a5abacked No61c40.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.34358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked No67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.27864.1%50 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No73c39.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5936227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6aa…af95backed No75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+52.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa068…1dfbbacked Yes39c32.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.77128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick35cpaid-88.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xafe2…b686backed No61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.482850%14 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No48c30.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.656366.7%42 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No57c29.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.684168.3%28 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No72c28.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.739981.8%81 W · 18 L+9.7wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed No78c27.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.982360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes40c26.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6611452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5314…323ebacked Yes45c24.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No61c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3612432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x802c…e4b0backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf8a…085bbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84131.7%13 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.36040%24 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+94.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cc…d3a5backed No63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.921764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x966b…2ee6backed No72c15.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.233066.7%20 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.