World Politics · resolved market
Will Cristian Sanabria win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7279b20927c8bb35b56720fbedf14b74ef45d3f1078456637e4da3aa5144e0ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,282 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 36c | 2,401$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 61c | 1,515$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 48c | 1,277$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 65c | 1,196$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed No | 64c | 1,029$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 64c | 1,028$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 65c | 806$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked No | 39c | 775$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 52c | 765$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 52c | 749$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 39c | 740$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 35c | 723$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 35c | 716$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed No | 35c | 698$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 425.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 64c | 344$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 48c | 237$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…33fcbacked Yes | 52c | 236$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes | 48c | 196.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…9314backed Yes | 64c | 147.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…2ccbbacked Yes | 61c | 137.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed Yes | 65c | 135$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 57c | 81.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked No | 56c | 71.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 69.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 68.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 30c | 60.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 54.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 54.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 39c | 51.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 46.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 44c | 36.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 39c | 35.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…612dbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…6b5cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…45dcbacked Yes | 61c | 26.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…2bc4backed No | 77c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 71c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 15.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cristian Sanabria win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?this page
- Will Cecilia Calani win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Enrique Leaño win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Fátima Tardío win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Horacio Poppe win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Juan Antonio Jesús win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Richard Moscoso win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Wilber Chocamani win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.