World Politics · resolved market
Will Enrique Leaño win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4147585150663c48905fbff9823e0a8ec0e62b3d9689368cd18a54d1f6332b78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,901 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfaf1…071ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,421$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6cdbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,412$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…5b9ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…d313backed No | 57c | 1,079$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…7180backed No | 57c | 1,079$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…e17ebacked No | 57c | 1,078$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a06…87a3backed No | 57c | 997$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa12a…54b6backed Yes | 32c | 633.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 5c | 629.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…5516backed No | 57c | 187.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 120.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 99.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 81.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…711abacked Yes | 16c | 67.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…bd2ebacked Yes | 63c | 52.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 41c | 47.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 42.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 37c | 39.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Enrique Leaño win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?this page
- Will Cecilia Calani win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Cristian Sanabria win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Erick Marcelo Pedrazas López win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Fátima Tardío win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Horacio Poppe win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Juan Antonio Jesús win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Richard Moscoso win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
- Will Wilber Chocamani win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.