Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78366740f8625685dcb79335bca91dc2492156ece52af483ecfe703f17c2601e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 30c | 1,751$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 72c | 985$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 28c | 960$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 28c | 921$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 72c | 856$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 28c | 851$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 72c | 851$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 28c | 823$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 72c | 811$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 28c | 810$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed No | 72c | 791$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 70c | 599$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 70c | 582$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed No | 70c | 570$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 28c | 525$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 72c | 521$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed No | 78c | 516$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 39c | 511.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.93 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 64c | 471.69$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 68c | 429.3$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.98 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 61c | 389.98$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…73b4backed Yes | 52c | 384.7$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…41fbbacked Yes | 55c | 328.36$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 61c | 299.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 48c | 195.16$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…8c91backed No | 38c | 165.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 63c | 159.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 157.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 28c | 141$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…6a67backed Yes | 41c | 140.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 44c | 132.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x151d…4497backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 21c | 118.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 26c | 105.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…4e99backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 74c | 96.79$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 92.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 73c | 82.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 65cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa41b…e496backed Yes | 55c | 82.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked No | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 38c | 78.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…fb3fbacked Yes | 39c | 75.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6241…e7ccbacked Yes | 41c | 73.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked No | 55c | 70.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5777backed Yes | 31c | 63.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 30c | 62.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…f2d7backed Yes | 55c | 54.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 54.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61c8…1ed4backed No | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 39c | 50.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 68c | 49.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…3edebacked Yes | 68c | 44.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 71c | 43.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 68c | 37.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 70c | 35.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb18e…e00ebacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 37c | 30.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…6b00backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed No | 74c | 20.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 76c | 14.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.