Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aa65ba84dd3db9adaeb7566eb434317b22cdcf391fa7105a64fad71f332d59d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,452$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed Yes | 29c | 1,416$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 69c | 1,409$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 31c | 1,360$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed No | 71c | 969$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 71c | 954$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 71c | 945$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 68c | 941.55$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…8c91backed Yes | 25c | 764.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.41 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 24c | 623$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 76c | 604$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 34c | 596.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked No | 76c | 565$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 24c | 546$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 34c | 282.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 73c | 268.85$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 199.96$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 70c | 145.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 16c | 129.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 31c | 127$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 67c | 124.38$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…c41fbacked Yes | 23c | 88.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 71c | 82.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed No | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 64.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 32c | 61.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18e…e00ebacked No | 74c | 34.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?this page
- Will Powell say "Data Center" during April press conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.