TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf796…3ac5backed Yes7c7,091$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c5,622$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.436291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c3,990$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.511491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c3,100$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.52003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c2,150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6826312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59a…950cbacked Yes5c1,754$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52f…bf2ebacked Yes23c1,736$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.99825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+115.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453d…7be9backed Yes5c1,708$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x350b…b92dbacked Yes1c1,691$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4066…f052backed Yes1c1,615$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes6c1,553$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.17137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-82.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes25c1,486$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.815111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6601…740dbacked Yes5c1,448$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes3c1,319$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.414814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90e3…787fbacked Yes5c1,319$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36cd…8dcdbacked Yes5c1,318$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…2bc8backed Yes5c1,241$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55cd…f8d8backed Yes6c1,215$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x573e…3324backed Yes5c1,113$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes24c1,104$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.047238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf4f…c455backed Yes5c1,069$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd438…ce1abacked Yes5c1,063$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ce…e6eabacked Yes5c1,019$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc1…ed1bbacked Yes5c1,018$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked Yes8c999.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b5…8378backed Yes5c999.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes19c997.28$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.687337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194a…3bb9backed Yes3c880$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes6c838.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c767$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.241867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7020…244dbacked Yes5c730$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf6…af1ebacked Yes29c727.65$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a8…9445backed Yes6c721$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cca…cf66backed Yes5c687$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba92…ed96backed Yes5c686$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes8c685.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed Yes67c610.47$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.092236.4%8 W · 14 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed Yes3c599.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e9f…169ebacked Yes5c594$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x029f…3668backed Yes6c566.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes52c544.37$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.32458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c542.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes19c525.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a47…d7f1backed Yes8c484.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.49425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47f…cf1abacked Yes6c457$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes26c442.35$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9320130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c428.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.912522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfd8…e65bbacked Yes51c427.15$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes25c407.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b01…01dcbacked Yes5c398$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed No56c391.38$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.218853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c379.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.762977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbcd…e65ebacked Yes24c370$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef82…f8c9backed Yes6c335$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No61c331.62$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.414643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes21c317.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No68c308.1$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1512050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69c9…cecdbacked Yes6c300.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d5…c20fbacked Yes41c280.82$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4177…bbe4backed Yes48c278.06$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.055221.2%11 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+145.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c275.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.02486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05a…a7ebbacked Yes8c263.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71ea…d2c7backed Yes36c258.96$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c250.31$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0220148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes18c228.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2120544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a15…45bebacked Yes7c212.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No47c194.94$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3214339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c179.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0389317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Yes9c176.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c172.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.381,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes46c155$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No57c151.44$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.698650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c2…94c0backed Yes55c144.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.52520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes44c140$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes36c133.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.182369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa87d…a82cbacked Yes30c112.76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe535…b429backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8069…b68ebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No63c93.84$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6513422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc54d…8be1backed Yes44c93.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2bd…1469backed Yes54c91.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked Yes14c90.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed No53c88.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.684032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe866…cc4dbacked Yes33c76.32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.84633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0615…6191backed Yes15c72.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x401c…ee2dbacked Yes32c61.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaff3…fef8backed Yes20c59.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c57.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4540712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes19c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5519337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cc9…c447backed Yes20c51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-85.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8497…a3b4backed Yes41c47.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No59c46.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2617350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed Yes64c46.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308076.3%61 W · 19 L+12.0wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+48.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xffb8…b577backed Yes61c44.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed No47c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.261675%12 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+76.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb3ba…e0d8backed Yes51c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes48c36.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.283046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.