AI · resolved market
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041718e9ff81efd4727707cf86d883caeaad47f917d04ffd258b4b377769e6b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf796…3ac5backed Yes | 7c | 7,091$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,622$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,990$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.51 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 3,100$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…950cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,754$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…bf2ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,736$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…7be9backed Yes | 5c | 1,708$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350b…b92dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,691$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…f052backed Yes | 1c | 1,615$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,553$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 1,486$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.81 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6601…740dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,448$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,319$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e3…787fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,319$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cd…8dcdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,318$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4e…47f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…2bc8backed Yes | 5c | 1,241$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…f8d8backed Yes | 6c | 1,215$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…3324backed Yes | 5c | 1,113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,104$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4f…c455backed Yes | 5c | 1,069$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd438…ce1abacked Yes | 5c | 1,063$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ce…e6eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,019$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…ed1bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,018$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b5…8378backed Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 19c | 997.28$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…3bb9backed Yes | 3c | 880$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes | 6c | 838.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 767$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…244dbacked Yes | 5c | 730$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…af1ebacked Yes | 29c | 727.65$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…9445backed Yes | 6c | 721$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…cf66backed Yes | 5c | 687$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…ed96backed Yes | 5c | 686$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…9e2cbacked Yes | 8c | 685.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 67c | 610.47$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.09 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…169ebacked Yes | 5c | 594$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x029f…3668backed Yes | 6c | 566.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 52c | 544.37$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 542.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 19c | 525.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…d7f1backed Yes | 8c | 484.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47f…cf1abacked Yes | 6c | 457$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 26c | 442.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 428.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd8…e65bbacked Yes | 51c | 427.15$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 25c | 407.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…01dcbacked Yes | 5c | 398$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 56c | 391.38$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.21 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 379.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…e65ebacked Yes | 24c | 370$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef82…f8c9backed Yes | 6c | 335$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 331.62$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 21c | 317.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 68c | 308.1$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…cecdbacked Yes | 6c | 300.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d5…c20fbacked Yes | 41c | 280.82$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 48c | 278.06$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 275.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…a7ebbacked Yes | 8c | 263.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…d2c7backed Yes | 36c | 258.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 250.31$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 228.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…45bebacked Yes | 7c | 212.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 47c | 194.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 179.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 9c | 176.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 172.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 151.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…94c0backed Yes | 55c | 144.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 44c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 36c | 133.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…a82cbacked Yes | 30c | 112.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…b429backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…b68ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 63c | 93.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…8be1backed Yes | 44c | 93.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bd…1469backed Yes | 54c | 91.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked Yes | 14c | 90.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed No | 53c | 88.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…cc4dbacked Yes | 33c | 76.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…6191backed Yes | 15c | 72.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…ee2dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…fef8backed Yes | 20c | 59.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 19c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc9…c447backed Yes | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8497…a3b4backed Yes | 41c | 47.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 59c | 46.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…b577backed Yes | 61c | 44.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…e0d8backed Yes | 51c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 48c | 36.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.