AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b87eda3a5537f47cdcc9e982a01de51a776fb421b8211c1d62ff68da1c6601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2965…c74abacked No | 30c | 14,642$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.71 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…d626backed No | 20c | 6,885$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 4,791$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 74c | 3,982$2,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.48 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 70c | 2,851$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.2 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 62c | 2,103$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.65 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 65c | 1,766$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.96 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…6d1abacked No | 1c | 1,674$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 60c | 1,586$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 1,548$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.88 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 68c | 1,462$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.84 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 77c | 1,358$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.83 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 70c | 1,295$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 62c | 1,275$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.91 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,199$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…3b94backed No | 1c | 1,193$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 71c | 1,149$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.63 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed No | 9c | 1,124$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 52c | 1,120$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 1,043$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e4f3backed No | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…d7a0backed No | 24c | 926.31$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf796…3ac5backed No | 12c | 865.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 77c | 800$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 790.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 712.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 70c | 548.03$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 547.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 70c | 513.01$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.78 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 60c | 500$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…e65abacked No | 25c | 500$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 73c | 478.7$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…0a7dbacked No | 14c | 421.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 46c | 420.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.83 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 60c | 416.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd8…e65bbacked Yes | 46c | 393.12$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 333.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 315$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 6c | 306$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 299.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.26 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…a79abacked No | 47c | 298.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 297.17$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 79c | 286.1$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 67c | 277.13$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 10c | 276.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.04 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 51c | 258.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…1218backed No | 10c | 253$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…2c4ebacked No | 13c | 235.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255d…1c2bbacked No | 11c | 234.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 80c | 234.53$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 71c | 224.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 55c | 216.68$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…294cbacked Yes | 61c | 199.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…5b15backed Yes | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…0787backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +268.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8048backed No | 10c | 171.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 34c | 164$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 162.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed No | 8c | 161.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac9d…c9b9backed No | 9c | 157.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc4…eb39backed No | 71c | 154.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…7f1ebacked No | 65c | 152.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 42c | 147$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…5a16backed No | 67c | 145.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396e…1a59backed No | 14c | 138.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked No | 9c | 124.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 120.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e7…1c2abacked Yes | 43c | 115.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…820dbacked No | 10c | 107.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b7…e085backed Yes | 19c | 97.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 88.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…8af0backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 51c | 69.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…cc4dbacked Yes | 63c | 68.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 46c | 61.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 58c | 58.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…e110backed Yes | 50c | 43.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…5ce0backed Yes | 54c | 40.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 35c | 37.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 64c | 35.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 33.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed Yes | 38c | 30.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 69c | 26.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 45c | 26.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 57c | 22.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.