Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda63e9a4419b36eed1559287ec645677d23cb95d96ce7d5c91d83cb6a8b268e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $723,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $757,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $723,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 584 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e8d…910fbacked No | 1c | 47,243$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 41,619$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 3c | 21,024$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.51 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 13,403$10,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,284 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…cc57backed No | 1c | 11,556$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 17c | 11,451$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.61 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 46c | 10,166$4,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,439.96 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes | 67c | 9,887$6,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,221.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 61c | 8,916$5,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,461.54 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccc…d450backed No | 1c | 8,755$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…3f2cbacked No | 1c | 7,174$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +616.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…f12fbacked Yes | 49c | 7,148$3,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,662.55 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 34c | 5,912$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,924.83 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 68c | 5,728$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,883.21 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 41c | 5,650$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.84 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9145…fe79backed Yes | 29c | 5,561$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,961.37 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…8f93backed No | 1c | 5,405$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 11c | 5,387$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.72 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 79c | 5,265$4,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,166.49 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked No | 11c | 4,923$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.59 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed No | 0c | 4,613$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 73c | 4,601$3,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.34 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 73c | 4,576$3,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.57 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked No | 0c | 4,502$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…5b2fbacked No | 1c | 4,445$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 7c | 4,084$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.67 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 18c | 4,084$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.68 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…7728backed Yes | 33c | 4,000$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,694.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…0c3cbacked No | 1c | 3,980$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 16c | 3,862$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.64 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 67c | 3,844$2,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.48 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 11c | 3,755$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,339.64 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 54c | 3,590$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.05 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae9…4eecbacked No | 0c | 3,368$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 33c | 3,358$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.95 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed Yes | 37c | 3,244$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 30c | 3,000$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.42 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,960$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.21 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,930$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 45c | 2,917$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 30c | 2,800$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.99 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…7ff7backed Yes | 29c | 2,760$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.45 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,701$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,782.62 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 19c | 2,617$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.95 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 9c | 2,616$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.45 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed No | 69c | 2,615$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…11c5backed No | 11c | 2,555$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 12c | 2,400$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.06 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 12c | 2,300$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.8 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 27c | 2,183$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.97 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 7c | 2,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 33c | 1,838$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.16 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 60c | 1,830$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.89 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 42c | 1,781$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.05 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 42c | 1,770$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.9 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…b1d8backed Yes | 26c | 1,734$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +101%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 28c | 1,732$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.29 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 36c | 1,728$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…42cdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,722$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 1c | 1,715$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 63c | 1,700$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 30c | 1,646$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 18c | 1,642$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.47 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 20c | 1,632$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.25 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 25c | 1,602$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.89 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,553$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.89 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…bddebacked Yes | 11c | 1,545$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.11 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 65c | 1,545$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.39 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…506ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 15c | 1,505$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.15 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 1,411$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.94 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,392$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.72 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 10c | 1,343$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.43 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…3936backed No | 76c | 1,332$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +287.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 1,307$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.38 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 22c | 1,301$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.53 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…2a4dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,263$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 73c | 1,258$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.78 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 41c | 1,258$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.25 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,230$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.84 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed No | 68c | 1,188$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.33 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 12c | 1,166$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.91 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 22c | 1,150$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.76 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 1,146$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.91 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 9c | 1,115$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.1 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 70c | 1,112$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.04 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…c9abbacked Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 34c | 1,100$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…cf22backed Yes | 48c | 1,100$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.72 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 18c | 1,091$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.7 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 50c | 1,089$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.99 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 28c | 1,080$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.37 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 55c | 1,060$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 55c | 1,031$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 34c | 1,017$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.29 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 67c | 1,005$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.39 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 51c | 1,000$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?this page
- Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.