Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00373f48342212cfc74833f43e61eed5efd678b37ec212622fc68c551249e963
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $659,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $624,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $659,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 318 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 0c | 249,759$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 42,386$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…7c98backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 79c | 7,340$5,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.36 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…a9c5backed Yes | 11c | 7,188$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.69 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…b824backed Yes | 12c | 6,322$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 16c | 5,402$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,067$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.25 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 21c | 5,044$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.99 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…eab7backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9ae8backed Yes | 22c | 4,803$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10e3…a960backed Yes | 6c | 4,653$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 79c | 4,472$3,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2e…5e5abacked Yes | 19c | 3,428$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…b1d8backed Yes | 29c | 3,415$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +101%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 13c | 3,323$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.66 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 9c | 3,049$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…aabfbacked Yes | 16c | 3,032$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 18c | 2,887$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.29 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…33e3backed Yes | 19c | 2,722$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes | 19c | 2,702$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.6 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 15c | 2,560$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…b9a4backed Yes | 18c | 2,502$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 11c | 2,461$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.64 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 24c | 2,282$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.89 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 22c | 2,279$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked Yes | 10c | 2,166$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.11 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 11c | 2,159$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.17 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1081…c76bbacked Yes | 14c | 2,140$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.6 | 52 | 17.3%9 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 9c | 2,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…224cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,086$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +108%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7e36backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…6146backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…c27bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,998$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 1,966$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…2d87backed Yes | 16c | 1,885$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +259.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,878$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.64 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,876$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.32 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5f…e090backed Yes | 16c | 1,863$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f23…37c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…71c5backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 79c | 1,514$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.13 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…04cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 13c | 1,456$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…3c7abacked Yes | 21c | 1,411$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 16c | 1,315$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,275$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 4c | 1,215$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…b217backed Yes | 12c | 1,171$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 6cpaid | +608.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,131$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 14c | 1,045$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 5c | 1,041$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 23c | 1,014$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 79c | 1,000$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 74c | 1,000$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…c0fdbacked Yes | 13c | 999.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…589cbacked Yes | 18c | 996.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 80c | 969.23$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.03 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…7dbabacked Yes | 20c | 968.87$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 19c | 966.26$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked Yes | 16c | 963.42$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…9bf0backed Yes | 17c | 914.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.09 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 24c | 907.48$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.33 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 16c | 895.91$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…4cb3backed Yes | 18c | 871.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 14c | 861.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes | 18c | 850$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…7f85backed Yes | 24c | 847.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 7c | 839.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…e598backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 78c | 799.99$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 15c | 761.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 710$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 14c | 709.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…338ebacked Yes | 21c | 663.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…04febacked Yes | 18c | 651.03$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d25…5529backed Yes | 11c | 650$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 602.96$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 17c | 589.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 37c | 582.82$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.01 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Yes | 17c | 573.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ef…f4d4backed Yes | 18c | 564.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…c9abbacked Yes | 18c | 558.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…3078backed Yes | 14c | 550$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Yes | 32c | 536.14$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…53f7backed Yes | 17c | 530$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8c…ca21backed Yes | 19c | 517.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…cf43backed Yes | 19c | 512.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Yes | 12c | 497$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?this page
- Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.