TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$210,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$185,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,114 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe806…406dbacked Yes1c6,174$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a18…9006backed Yes6c4,151$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c3,981$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.676291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes8c3,212$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.23456.7%3 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes11c3,201$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.454216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked No77c2,883$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.2727536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No76c2,535$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.7515452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked Yes10c2,526$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.722416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-65%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d76…d7a0backed Yes10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes27c2,289$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.562369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ef2…24a6backed Yes3c1,970$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56cf…d76bbacked Yes3c1,962$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb4…fff5backed Yes3c1,962$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b7…b9bebacked Yes3c1,900$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02dc…d3eabacked Yes3c1,684$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe59…a713backed Yes7c1,670$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda04…d0edbacked Yes3c1,669$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b2…0d78backed Yes3c1,614$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ed0…b808backed Yes2c1,589$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb3d…a3e7backed Yes3c1,582$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes3c1,568$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.932910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c4…2781backed Yes31c1,563$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.67650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+178.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a2…ac63backed Yes3c1,531$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…dbf9backed Yes2c1,421$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90e9…485bbacked Yes2c1,384$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,384$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.272792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be3…a4cabacked Yes2c1,316$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf796…3ac5backed Yes15c1,313$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2103…4ff5backed Yes13c1,276$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.091520%3 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2d…7e4fbacked Yes2c1,261$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c1,238$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.183042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b80…f85bbacked Yes3c1,192$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fb…0547backed Yes3c1,163$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e77…b3f2backed Yes34c1,128$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7063…9b11backed Yes6c1,113$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe17…27b7backed Yes2c1,113$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x405e…deffbacked Yes19c1,070$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf34f…fb11backed Yes13c1,062$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd5…41f2backed Yes37c1,046$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce2…ee1cbacked Yes2c1,040$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,033$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.162522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c1,010$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6520148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c1,001$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1726312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7661…208abacked Yes37c999.98$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+99.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb3…8b91backed Yes2c933$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c874.12$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.421,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5d…7accbacked Yes2c854$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e55…6296backed Yes2c838$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d29…5033backed Yes10c833.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52c…aaacbacked Yes3c831$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf66…e5f6backed Yes3c813$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb972…9359backed Yes3c788$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed Yes10c739.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes19c724.51$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0518323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e7…d3a5backed Yes7c714$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes7c680.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.551867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4822…4fa7backed Yes15c678.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+89.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes16c662.31$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9712033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes34c659.88$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-50.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No60c643.19$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.7125837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes26c636.58$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.031643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4985…efc4backed Yes5c618.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b28…7632backed Yes17c599.27$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8521…8854backed Yes3c596$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6928…d7afbacked Yes4c594.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3903…e027backed Yes36c586.16$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes11c576.12$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.994918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…54bbbacked Yes4c556.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes27c553.53$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2107…ee71backed Yes3c549$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes41c529.35$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x653a…bfe1backed Yes13c525.86$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…47e8backed Yes63c511.2$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.881225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1e34…b86fbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb891…e65abacked Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-87.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7202…4e01backed Yes3c494.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No78c486.14$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0611841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes11c471.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.152977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0882…f91bbacked Yes3c468$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes37c464.93$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.367238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x880f…9745backed Yes13c448.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes33c434.5$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14519040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd70…bc7abacked Yes3c425$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c419.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd05…4d8abacked Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes40c415.34$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.942835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd134…5a70backed Yes25c413.15$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+77.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a35…ce1cbacked Yes3c412$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes12c400$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.949915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes34c396.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.989041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes32c383.92$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1820130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4a…fad9backed Yes5c377.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c7…bdbbbacked Yes8c363.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked No73c361.37$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.453638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x723d…90c4backed Yes11c359.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.911442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+59.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes34c354.81$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes31c344.24$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.124045%18 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes4c339.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.27700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c334.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.