AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90301098126f955f3ce5a03b7fe4c35a3641b233f4c56e88b11070a1b414c61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 21,576$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.54 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes | 3c | 9,699$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 5,076$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 3,164$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…b278backed Yes | 4c | 3,113$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…9554backed Yes | 4c | 2,753$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…d5f1backed Yes | 2c | 2,596$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 1c | 2,534$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 3c | 2,485$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa3…a2c4backed Yes | 4c | 2,328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…e4eebacked Yes | 2c | 2,179$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2a82backed Yes | 2c | 2,071$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,688$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…1edebacked Yes | 2c | 1,668$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,641$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,625$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,623$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.58 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa475…ce69backed Yes | 2c | 1,553$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…b108backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…e1b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 3c | 1,412$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc973…5d9dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,365$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…695ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,344$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,327$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…282cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,290$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 1,286$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 4c | 1,249$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +494.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…7dd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,246$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…f1b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,206$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…e63ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,189$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…e6a0backed Yes | 3c | 1,177$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a1…5c00backed Yes | 2c | 1,172$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…efccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009f…32febacked Yes | 2c | 1,139$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,129$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…538cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,124$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…d39abacked Yes | 2c | 1,104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,091$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…7604backed Yes | 2c | 1,084$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…2f87backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…becbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,018$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…7833backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…ed96backed Yes | 2c | 1,006$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a5…36f3backed Yes | 3c | 1,005$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 4c | 997.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca37…dbb9backed Yes | 2c | 955$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…78c4backed Yes | 4c | 924$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…80e3backed Yes | 2c | 913$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…0ae2backed Yes | 2c | 903$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9466backed Yes | 2c | 892$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b10…0473backed Yes | 2c | 885$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…98a4backed Yes | 2c | 873$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…ad44backed Yes | 2c | 871$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402b…3f0cbacked Yes | 3c | 843$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 3c | 827.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71e3…0c9fbacked Yes | 2c | 795$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…5400backed Yes | 2c | 783.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 775.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 3c | 680.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 658.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5a…5e87backed Yes | 2c | 597$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…578ebacked Yes | 2c | 560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…bc72backed Yes | 5c | 495.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 439.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 426.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 2c | 420.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 7c | 374.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 366.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…8e81backed Yes | 9c | 329.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaed…130abacked Yes | 4c | 273.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 4c | 250.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…de63backed Yes | 9c | 216.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…7c8fbacked Yes | 6c | 177.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Yes won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.