AI · resolved market
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaec744acc776760b5ae4ea624392701e5be37f226030347437abdb6df9c1d184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa652…8e90backed Yes | 11c | 8,793$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 9c | 5,783$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.98 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 5c | 4,267$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.64 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 3,611$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,466$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…66e8backed Yes | 7c | 3,396$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 8c | 3,284$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.35 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…e65ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,352$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…57babacked Yes | 2c | 2,001$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,974$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,951$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…e56cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,706$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 10c | 1,627$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd203…7f77backed Yes | 2c | 1,558$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…3994backed Yes | 1c | 1,532$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,440$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 1c | 1,419$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,166$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…40fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,146$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…3e9ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…4b19backed Yes | 2c | 1,097$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 10c | 973.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 907.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…2781backed Yes | 6c | 880$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…fb11backed Yes | 11c | 834.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…a8ffbacked Yes | 2c | 810$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 797.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d29…5033backed Yes | 9c | 775.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 571.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…2971backed Yes | 2c | 529.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 15c | 504.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…b10fbacked Yes | 6c | 499.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…47e8backed Yes | 31c | 444.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed Yes | 5c | 407.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…cc36backed Yes | 3c | 388.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 5c | 346.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…0c00backed Yes | 12c | 337.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 6c | 326.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 77c | 323.9$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 10c | 322.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…e20dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 299.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 12c | 299.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…c728backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 6c | 250.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Yes | 6c | 248.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 8c | 244.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 229.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 11c | 224.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 216.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 212.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed Yes | 19c | 206.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 13c | 204.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…8d1abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 197.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…b25dbacked Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…e488backed Yes | 12c | 173.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 173.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 12c | 164.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Yes | 12c | 163.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 150.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…1659backed Yes | 14c | 146.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…5daebacked Yes | 14c | 140.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…bb4abacked Yes | 16c | 126.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 10c | 123.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Yes won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.