Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae3a75540d2d581f9122b6f6e266699034f7c3735341daf2cb5625ce5caccaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $295,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1fe…62dabacked Yes | 6c | 3,444$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f9…b949backed Yes | 6c | 3,039$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…cb34backed Yes | 6c | 2,981$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,579$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…7566backed Yes | 6c | 2,575$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44db…ad80backed Yes | 7c | 2,480$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0c…1948backed Yes | 6c | 2,479$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf188…a8a5backed Yes | 6c | 2,461$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…d5d1backed Yes | 6c | 2,458$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa50e…159abacked Yes | 6c | 2,426$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8e…71eabacked Yes | 6c | 2,189$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…6a4fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,178$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,162$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.91 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.58 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…3c6dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,885$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fa…37f2backed Yes | 6c | 1,876$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…8b91backed Yes | 6c | 1,810$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…7a5fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,790$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a3…d5ddbacked Yes | 6c | 1,765$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda5…5fbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,719$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6893…5905backed Yes | 6c | 1,639$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…56d9backed Yes | 7c | 1,631$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…c4a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,549$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…7518backed Yes | 6c | 1,509$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…1939backed Yes | 7c | 1,453$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 1,405$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…d438backed Yes | 7c | 1,349$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a6…c250backed Yes | 7c | 1,196$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8c…b8f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,185$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…9024backed Yes | 7c | 1,177$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…c671backed Yes | 6c | 1,174$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 80c | 1,080$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.49 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 28c | 1,065$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…ae6abacked Yes | 6c | 1,046$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…7765backed Yes | 7c | 1,037$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d1…5d0abacked Yes | 6c | 1,027$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d19cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,018$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f4…7b1abacked Yes | 6c | 992$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dad…0755backed Yes | 7c | 932$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…8b1bbacked Yes | 6c | 911$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…20c1backed Yes | 6c | 899$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a5…7749backed Yes | 6c | 881$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes | 18c | 870.66$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…6ec1backed Yes | 6c | 864$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…f59dbacked Yes | 6c | 859$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 843.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…1976backed Yes | 3c | 837$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…387ebacked Yes | 4c | 836$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62f…4854backed Yes | 4c | 835$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…3c31backed Yes | 7c | 819$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…c31cbacked Yes | 6c | 791$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…dbf2backed Yes | 6c | 787$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…a00bbacked Yes | 6c | 787$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764c…f874backed Yes | 6c | 773$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…3257backed Yes | 6c | 769$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x097b…1e48backed Yes | 4c | 743$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…fd4fbacked Yes | 6c | 737$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…a5fabacked Yes | 6c | 720$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…e1e2backed Yes | 6c | 717$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…0cc7backed Yes | 6c | 711$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7f…f8b1backed Yes | 6c | 710$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…51a3backed Yes | 6c | 707$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…7d08backed Yes | 7c | 706$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff4…c841backed Yes | 6c | 704$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…1c0ebacked Yes | 6c | 703$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…b351backed Yes | 6c | 701$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8357…cf7ebacked Yes | 6c | 699$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e5…c752backed Yes | 4c | 694$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…ba83backed Yes | 6c | 694$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb23…23c1backed Yes | 6c | 684$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…8583backed Yes | 6c | 683$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…ef6abacked Yes | 7c | 683$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf309…c42dbacked Yes | 6c | 672$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…5334backed Yes | 6c | 671$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…e011backed Yes | 6c | 664$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…5849backed Yes | 3c | 643.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…a04fbacked Yes | 6c | 642$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…ddf8backed Yes | 6c | 635$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf7…13eabacked Yes | 7c | 627$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…08d9backed Yes | 6c | 624$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…a6aabacked Yes | 33c | 613.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb469…b5bbbacked Yes | 6c | 608$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed Yes | 15c | 599.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 17c | 585.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…bef4backed Yes | 6c | 580$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…441bbacked Yes | 7c | 562$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…7c14backed Yes | 7c | 559$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…070ebacked Yes | 6c | 556$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 79c | 550$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 79c | 550$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…3d4dbacked Yes | 6c | 550$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 538.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…e304backed Yes | 4c | 536.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 15c | 530.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06f…f952backed Yes | 4c | 526$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75e…83ffbacked Yes | 6c | 514$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…f064backed Yes | 3c | 513$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…4972backed Yes | 6c | 513$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…9692backed Yes | 6c | 513$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…683abacked Yes | 7c | 508$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.