Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8493770be50a6c8f9cce8768f974fe5555113ef91f9bd392bc031a89434b972c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba17…c1edbacked Yes | 3c | 3,504$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 3,382$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…d039backed Yes | 3c | 2,727$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7e…2307backed Yes | 3c | 2,382$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb12…b912backed Yes | 3c | 2,121$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…ca5cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,075$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…65fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,940$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…137fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,908$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,847$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f108backed Yes | 3c | 1,779$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…fea8backed Yes | 3c | 1,697$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9185…820cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,654$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…bdc0backed Yes | 3c | 1,557$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…bfcabacked Yes | 3c | 1,481$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…36c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,478$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,335$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5f…3c94backed Yes | 3c | 1,238$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…aaf4backed Yes | 3c | 1,215$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 3c | 999.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…614cbacked Yes | 3c | 995$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 963.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…ad3cbacked Yes | 3c | 922$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaae…d0f5backed Yes | 2c | 880.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…f08cbacked Yes | 3c | 872$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…c7c1backed Yes | 4c | 806$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…6895backed Yes | 3c | 774$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…729bbacked Yes | 3c | 697$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…aba6backed Yes | 3c | 641$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 640.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…a0febacked Yes | 4c | 561$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 4c | 531.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 520.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe745…eafebacked Yes | 3c | 511$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…730cbacked Yes | 4c | 480$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff8…6d63backed Yes | 4c | 457$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…df61backed Yes | 3c | 455$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 430.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b1…41cebacked Yes | 3c | 422$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…006bbacked Yes | 3c | 422$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bd…f29dbacked Yes | 3c | 417$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 3c | 401.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd7…fe1dbacked Yes | 3c | 392$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d72…334fbacked Yes | 3c | 390$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…3067backed Yes | 4c | 284.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…12debacked Yes | 10c | 189.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c8…892ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.