Commodities · resolved market
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67b5e718df883524d81be30a07398f160ff69c2bb5b82b388ce3dd869fa9cb5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 6c | 10,053$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.09 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 7c | 2,671$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…8cb1backed Yes | 9c | 2,373$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 2,161$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd3…5d5fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,843$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…8d6bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,703$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,596$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 15c | 1,550$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.5 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…df61backed Yes | 4c | 1,506$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f42…416fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,400$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdf…44debacked Yes | 4c | 1,326$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…5f69backed Yes | 4c | 1,127$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…27edbacked Yes | 4c | 1,076$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…5b4cbacked Yes | 5c | 918.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 796.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…d160backed Yes | 4c | 742$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 76c | 740.69$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.29 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 737.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9a…308cbacked Yes | 4c | 727$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…ed98backed Yes | 4c | 724$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bd…f29dbacked Yes | 4c | 689$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31b…4648backed Yes | 4c | 627$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 15c | 552.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 3c | 483$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…aa1ebacked Yes | 4c | 477$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa731…0ad4backed Yes | 5c | 432.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 431.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 401.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d64…d1eabacked Yes | 6c | 380.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25fc…6dcebacked Yes | 10c | 296.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 280.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 251.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 228.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 21c | 217.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 5c | 212.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…3067backed Yes | 7c | 211.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 203.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd8…1622backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…afb5backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed Yes | 9c | 191.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…5b3bbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 18c | 113.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…2899backed Yes | 28c | 108.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 28c | 76.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 64c | 21.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 70c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?this page
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.