Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fd1ae84521895eff624ed0cae3524ea07ed1c56438ae1389b17e657e05a1d1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $277,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05c7…d5debacked Yes | 5c | 3,899$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…9f05backed Yes | 6c | 3,806$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…2dc1backed Yes | 4c | 3,151$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…3b4ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,120$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfa…f0ebbacked Yes | 7c | 2,848$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,726$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…8193backed Yes | 4c | 2,635$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c32…489ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,624$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e20…9776backed Yes | 4c | 2,341$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971b…ddcdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,334$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…ae41backed Yes | 8c | 2,316$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27d…50d5backed Yes | 4c | 2,221$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc92…e45bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,088$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a37…214ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,073$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,069$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…332abacked Yes | 4c | 2,028$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…6563backed Yes | 6c | 2,010$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5e…9c4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,905$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…e2d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,884$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac1b…4e64backed Yes | 7c | 1,761$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b87…09fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,716$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…2771backed Yes | 5c | 1,570$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…f8eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,543$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…7fefbacked Yes | 4c | 1,527$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…53ebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,519$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b72…0cc0backed Yes | 6c | 1,496$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac1…d64bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,494$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…ca7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,483$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa7…f787backed Yes | 6c | 1,478$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…2014backed Yes | 6c | 1,456$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…82e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,382$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…ea93backed Yes | 6c | 1,359$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,343$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,331$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5a…0e24backed Yes | 4c | 1,295$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,295$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…2766backed Yes | 6c | 1,233$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…6026backed Yes | 8c | 1,230$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…c104backed Yes | 4c | 1,185$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…a454backed Yes | 5c | 1,171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…f85bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,148$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc01…7f07backed Yes | 6c | 1,143$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff8…6d63backed Yes | 6c | 1,140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…8d45backed Yes | 6c | 1,132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2c…c127backed Yes | 8c | 1,055$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…bdccbacked Yes | 8c | 1,051$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…38cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,033$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…c141backed Yes | 6c | 1,029$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe849…e456backed Yes | 6c | 1,022$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…3ffdbacked Yes | 1c | 999.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf286…01e7backed Yes | 6c | 980$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bd…64d6backed Yes | 8c | 977$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89c…7cc7backed Yes | 8c | 972$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…dfc2backed Yes | 4c | 957$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…222fbacked Yes | 6c | 943$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2a…0773backed Yes | 6c | 900$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03e2…4e48backed Yes | 6c | 890$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…aaf4backed Yes | 4c | 874$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0d…769bbacked Yes | 6c | 871$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…e4e0backed Yes | 4c | 843$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaae…d0f5backed Yes | 3c | 829.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ad…5d8abacked Yes | 8c | 820$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5306…6729backed Yes | 4c | 779$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…2261backed Yes | 6c | 772$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…f50dbacked Yes | 4c | 762$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2036…7640backed Yes | 4c | 755$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…3807backed Yes | 6c | 754$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…2428backed Yes | 8c | 748$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 747.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386f…fda6backed Yes | 8c | 736$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…a41ebacked Yes | 4c | 735$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 3c | 727.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 701.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…c7c7backed Yes | 4c | 698$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…aa2abacked Yes | 4c | 689$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…9c12backed Yes | 4c | 670$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…98b6backed Yes | 3c | 669$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3b…5638backed Yes | 4c | 661$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…196abacked Yes | 4c | 659$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…56ffbacked Yes | 8c | 645$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 8c | 632.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…c627backed Yes | 3c | 628$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…1784backed Yes | 6c | 618$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc731…00babacked Yes | 8c | 616$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…a9bcbacked Yes | 3c | 613$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…b976backed Yes | 3c | 602$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5f…3c94backed Yes | 3c | 576$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…7ab1backed Yes | 3c | 571$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…8183backed Yes | 2c | 569.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…63b0backed Yes | 4c | 549$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 547.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…24a6backed Yes | 5c | 541$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…1e70backed Yes | 3c | 534$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a5…c6e3backed Yes | 4c | 519$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…6872backed Yes | 3c | 503$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed Yes | 11c | 499.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…3c06backed Yes | 4c | 482$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…cb85backed Yes | 8c | 455$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…6aacbacked Yes | 4c | 451$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 330.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.