Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd79f14c4afe6cadccdba46dce08d0a60714b2bac7b8665be3bb6ed2c7121e3e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $493,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $504,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 55c | 15,687$8,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,081.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked No | 10c | 15,332$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.67 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 48c | 10,053$4,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,781.07 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Yes | 60c | 4,638$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 50c | 4,578$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.18 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…3484backed No | 39c | 4,400$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes | 64c | 3,874$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.79 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…2d7abacked No | 7c | 3,772$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 38c | 3,467$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.48 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 46c | 3,454$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…8790backed No | 7c | 3,330$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…65fcbacked No | 5c | 3,025$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…7c92backed No | 5c | 3,005$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…0450backed No | 10c | 2,904$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 27c | 2,870$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.16 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 45c | 2,637$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes | 61c | 2,616$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.79 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…01c0backed No | 10c | 2,603$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4961…be9abacked No | 5c | 2,543$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ae…5ab3backed No | 6c | 2,395$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…a3c0backed No | 7c | 2,383$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 26c | 2,363$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,739.86 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x055b…a9a4backed No | 10c | 2,362$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 28c | 2,274$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.5 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2f…6becbacked No | 7c | 2,195$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…9096backed No | 7c | 2,088$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…3f8abacked No | 10c | 2,024$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…56b7backed No | 5c | 1,999$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…9fe1backed No | 5c | 1,961$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 47c | 1,951$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…bef4backed No | 10c | 1,923$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…e602backed No | 7c | 1,897$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd96…b829backed No | 7c | 1,873$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 55c | 1,815$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50a…774ebacked No | 4c | 1,760$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…311ebacked No | 5c | 1,750$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…ecc3backed No | 5c | 1,741$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f7f1backed No | 5c | 1,739$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e03…d9e0backed No | 5c | 1,722$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…39e3backed No | 6c | 1,708$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…469abacked No | 10c | 1,660$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…6c38backed No | 10c | 1,656$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 77c | 1,649$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.73 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc7…27bbbacked No | 4c | 1,634$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…4aedbacked No | 4c | 1,617$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…ab84backed No | 4c | 1,602$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 80c | 1,549$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.39 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 59c | 1,508$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.14 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…73febacked No | 5c | 1,505$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c9…8b05backed No | 9c | 1,493$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e7…0af1backed No | 5c | 1,436$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 1,429$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.73 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 41c | 1,402$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.6 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…d3b1backed No | 7c | 1,384$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…5b75backed No | 5c | 1,381$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb23…23c1backed No | 4c | 1,377$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Yes | 67c | 1,356$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…ef33backed No | 4c | 1,352$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…4046backed No | 9c | 1,337$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…f623backed No | 7c | 1,319$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…1d9bbacked No | 4c | 1,316$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…701abacked No | 10c | 1,310$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…b0b6backed No | 4c | 1,257$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386f…db83backed No | 1c | 1,243$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0b…3d79backed No | 10c | 1,233$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…e251backed Yes | 71c | 1,231$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68b…a9c0backed No | 6c | 1,231$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd6…7089backed No | 4c | 1,190$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbb…30a9backed No | 10c | 1,149$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…4a53backed No | 7c | 1,149$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…3c5cbacked No | 4c | 1,147$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 9c | 1,136$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe29…1201backed No | 6c | 1,120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…cb34backed No | 7c | 1,089$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…f784backed No | 5c | 1,064$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…6452backed No | 5c | 1,056$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…db0dbacked No | 4c | 1,030$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…d63abacked No | 5c | 1,017$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.64 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.58 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1528…5d56backed No | 5c | 998$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…c8b4backed No | 4c | 996$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3843backed Yes | 54c | 993.23$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…48f2backed No | 7c | 991$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…793dbacked No | 4c | 990$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7800…2887backed No | 5c | 972$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…6fb7backed No | 5c | 965$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…46adbacked No | 7c | 951.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ff…5c3dbacked No | 9c | 950$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1d…df58backed No | 7c | 946$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes | 53c | 939.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…3ed9backed No | 7c | 918$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f0…0894backed No | 5c | 917$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 909.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…6e8ebacked No | 3c | 896$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fc…915ebacked No | 7c | 895$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 65c | 890$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…6810backed No | 6c | 884$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c9…0e72backed No | 7c | 874$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7a…b661backed No | 10c | 865$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?this page
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.