TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,015
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,015 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked No65c8,233$5,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.143243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2786…5db1backed No57c6,542$3,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf35…5856backed No57c6,542$3,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa719…546abacked Yes49c6,542$3,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,205.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd7c…7aebbacked Yes43c6,542$2,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,813.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No70c4,218$2,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.858821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33fd…c3a0backed Yes24c3,965$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked No69c3,271$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe50a…6717backed Yes38c3,082$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.7350%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes10c3,000$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.9854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea65…69f3backed Yes34c2,317$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.570%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7b99…9127backed Yes32c2,284$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes28c2,218$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.2118216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b46…1263backed Yes34c2,136$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d3e…5c4ebacked Yes32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed No67c1,505$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.651050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81b…5e32backed Yes32c1,487$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.2690%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes31c1,486$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.661127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No67c1,276$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.831080%8 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+66%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4097…da98backed Yes32c1,252$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60be…f164backed No65c1,087$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.114100%14 W · 0 L+6.8wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+130.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes50c1,086$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed No33c1,067$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.895100%5 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+288.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c1,016$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8920…af7abacked Yes54c984.48$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534100%0 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x94c4…43cabacked No70c947.79$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.841266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22ce…7f27backed No70c938.77$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a10…fbe0backed No50c815$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked Yes33c773$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.091050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed No69c771$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.01757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No63c749.99$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.513343.6%58 W · 75 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked No67c748$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes33c743$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+319.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes33c737$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb407…252cbacked No68c736.21$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc2…297bbacked No69c715$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked No66c702.92$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.053259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No67c664.99$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.857761%47 W · 30 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed No64c656.49$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.987570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15a4…8d7bbacked Yes31c635.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed No73c610.25$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.752958.6%17 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No73c559.55$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.083666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes67c559$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes35c542.46$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.183826.3%10 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes31c528.92$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.3246330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed Yes67c508$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No62c499.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18810151.5%52 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x321e…1a71backed No64c470.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.091492.9%13 W · 1 L+6.0wins+0.43per pick50cpaid+106.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1b82…034dbacked Yes32c467.48$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ec0…76f4backed No50c447$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+261.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed No68c435.46$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.623100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55b3…4dcbbacked No62c407.21$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.212759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes36c399.97$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.992626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x98ce…0661backed Yes26c367.16$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cac…60bbbacked Yes28c357.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes39c328.59$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9516746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes21c328.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.441520%3 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf440…5fd7backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad0…28f7backed Yes32c316.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf34…dc86backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c77…1b74backed Yes49c243.61$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11960%0 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes31c234.91$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.824858.3%28 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No46c234.23$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1116834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…d706backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d5…3109backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f16…1b5dbacked Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7453…d586backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2b…e7ddbacked Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0db…e205backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a7…9215backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2fa…2da7backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…ee33backed Yes43c232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No69c221.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8211741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf789…a812backed Yes41c214.41$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8870%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No62c208.95$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc5…2743backed Yes48c208$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8410652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes42c192.81$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9813334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed70…2fb7backed No52c192$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a86…4045backed No52c192$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf268…ab74backed Yes32c185.08$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes34c178.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60180%0 W · 18 L-5.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5942…a678backed No49c177.65$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.463652.8%19 W · 17 L+8.3wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xab92…15ddbacked Yes50c176$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc2…8289backed Yes48c176$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d11…df3ebacked No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623b…6260backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…74b3backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b57backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb164…560dbacked No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f86…f471backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f01…7100backed Yes36c175$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbadc…90adbacked No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f01…3fc8backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x244a…cd84backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe37e…194cbacked No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb695…6a27backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a31…6161backed Yes33c172.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No64c172.2$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3745723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc86…66c6backed Yes33c169.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.