World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb418ec5494f6cc82f0ff5a82c71a151e75ad766dcc82ca31c932fe91584d3abe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 65c | 8,233$5,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.1 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2786…5db1backed No | 57c | 6,542$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…5856backed No | 57c | 6,542$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…546abacked Yes | 49c | 6,542$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,205.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…7aebbacked Yes | 43c | 6,542$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 70c | 4,218$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.85 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…c3a0backed Yes | 24c | 3,965$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 69c | 3,271$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…6717backed Yes | 38c | 3,082$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.98 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…69f3backed Yes | 34c | 2,317$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…9127backed Yes | 32c | 2,284$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 28c | 2,218$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.21 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 34c | 2,136$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 67c | 1,505$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5e32backed Yes | 32c | 1,487$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,486$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 67c | 1,276$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.83 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +66%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…da98backed Yes | 32c | 1,252$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed No | 65c | 1,087$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.1 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 50c | 1,086$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed No | 33c | 1,067$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +288.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 1,016$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.92 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…af7abacked Yes | 54c | 984.48$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 70c | 947.79$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22ce…7f27backed No | 70c | 938.77$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed No | 50c | 815$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 33c | 773$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 69c | 771$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 63c | 749.99$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked No | 67c | 748$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 33c | 743$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +319.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 33c | 737$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…252cbacked No | 68c | 736.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 69c | 715$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 66c | 702.92$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.05 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 67c | 664.99$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.85 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 64c | 656.49$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.98 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15a4…8d7bbacked Yes | 31c | 635.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 73c | 610.25$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.75 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 73c | 559.55$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 67c | 559$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 35c | 542.46$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 528.92$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 67c | 508$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 62c | 499.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed No | 64c | 470.09$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…034dbacked Yes | 32c | 467.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed No | 50c | 447$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +261.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed No | 68c | 435.46$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked No | 62c | 407.21$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 36c | 399.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…0661backed Yes | 26c | 367.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cac…60bbbacked Yes | 28c | 357.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 39c | 328.59$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 21c | 328.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…5fd7backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…28f7backed Yes | 32c | 316.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…dc86backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…1b74backed Yes | 49c | 243.61$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 31c | 234.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 234.23$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…d706backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d5…3109backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f16…1b5dbacked Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…d586backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…e7ddbacked Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0db…e205backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a7…9215backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…2da7backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…ee33backed Yes | 43c | 232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 69c | 221.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…a812backed Yes | 41c | 214.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 62c | 208.95$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc5…2743backed Yes | 48c | 208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 42c | 192.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…2fb7backed No | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…4045backed No | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…ab74backed Yes | 32c | 185.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 34c | 178.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed No | 49c | 177.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…8289backed Yes | 48c | 176$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d11…df3ebacked No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623b…6260backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…74b3backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b57backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb164…560dbacked No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…f471backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f01…7100backed Yes | 36c | 175$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbadc…90adbacked No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…3fc8backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…cd84backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…194cbacked No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…6a27backed No | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6161backed Yes | 33c | 172.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 64c | 172.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc86…66c6backed Yes | 33c | 169.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.