World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf493d343a2588ec38173edee124b25a9a891b8149080564fa25c2b50cf126bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…8664backed Yes | 14c | 4,267$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 1,635$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.87 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,143$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…357abacked Yes | 15c | 979.73$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 847.72$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed No | 78c | 542.5$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 71c | 428.81$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.06 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 28c | 428.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 422.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 13c | 421$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 13c | 368.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5d…1569backed Yes | 14c | 367.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…706abacked Yes | 29c | 330.23$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…cf0fbacked Yes | 18c | 328.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 300.36$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…b56bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 19c | 257.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 8c | 257$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 20c | 236.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 14c | 227$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc553…3d50backed Yes | 14c | 214.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…aabbbacked Yes | 12c | 199.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 22c | 195.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 178.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 9c | 162.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…6a8abacked Yes | 14c | 143.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 14c | 139.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 11c | 135.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 15c | 121.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 30c | 116.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…9943backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…d467backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5d2cbacked Yes | 16c | 97.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 12c | 83.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7696…ecb7backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 80.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked Yes | 17c | 63.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 18c | 60.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…1d93backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad6…c31bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.