World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aa5e3f58080a2fbb35bee826abe845739911f29992d2db53c658d5d15cec458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefe8…e0f2backed Yes | 25c | 4,155$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 2,910$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.11 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…571dbacked No | 77c | 2,538$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.73 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 79c | 2,485$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.47 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 23c | 2,332$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.89 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…5c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,157$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 22c | 1,640$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.68 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed No | 74c | 1,354$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.03 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked No | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 77c | 1,226$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.77 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 70c | 1,189$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.17 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 74c | 1,166$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…e850backed Yes | 25c | 994.93$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…69f3backed Yes | 17c | 989.73$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.06 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 62c | 935$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 72c | 935$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 28c | 935$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 38c | 935$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7297…cf0fbacked Yes | 31c | 867.12$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 853.36$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.81 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 25c | 697.6$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…0b7dbacked Yes | 13c | 695.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 29c | 651$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 71c | 651$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 23c | 587.57$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 70c | 555$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 515.55$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…32a4backed Yes | 25c | 457.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 24c | 450$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 28c | 418$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…7f19backed No | 72c | 418$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 68c | 403.93$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 30c | 364.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 338.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…402fbacked Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…965cbacked Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa341…e6a5backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…60a6backed Yes | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…30fbbacked Yes | 34c | 293$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 70c | 268$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Yes | 26c | 239.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 72c | 239$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 71c | 230.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 35c | 225.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…0a67backed Yes | 25c | 224$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 23c | 213.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 210.23$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed No | 77c | 207.79$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked No | 77c | 195.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -87%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 21c | 193.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 183.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 73c | 173.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c0…b049backed Yes | 29c | 170.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17a…6889backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f7…df14backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5945…695bbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f14…40ebbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce58…89bfbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…0eb9backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcd…fa45backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…c75fbacked No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…c7a1backed No | 66c | 151$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 25c | 145$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…7ee9backed No | 77c | 110.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…6f57backed No | 66c | 110$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fa…d0f0backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 93.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6fc1backed Yes | 37c | 92.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 69c | 88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…e6cabacked Yes | 26c | 87.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed No | 77c | 83.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…357abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…7e6cbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 71c | 73.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…c3a0backed Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 72.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be5…6c75backed Yes | 28c | 72.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd413…c7d6backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d5…2db1backed Yes | 21c | 64.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd691…24adbacked Yes | 36c | 57.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad0…28f7backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…f2f5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…1e87backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…28b0backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 48.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 74c | 45.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf92…7e3fbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.