World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a6788e30520a31998489d7b1a132f551ed64d917b9b57f8346e021820cb78c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 41c | 29,618$12,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,494.62 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…9adabacked Yes | 70c | 12,926$9,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 60c | 10,823$6,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,514.15 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked No | 38c | 8,160$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,062.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 56c | 7,728$4,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,333.12 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed No | 40c | 6,217$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 57c | 5,015$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 57c | 3,080$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…b0c1backed Yes | 67c | 3,002$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 38c | 2,802$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.59 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 55c | 2,449$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 36c | 2,443$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.74 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 56c | 2,049$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 1,998$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…59d2backed Yes | 62c | 1,890$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 47c | 1,888$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.11 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…69f3backed Yes | 63c | 1,696$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 1,644$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.67 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…eb1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,588$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 40c | 1,459$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.12 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…a081backed Yes | 59c | 1,410$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 64c | 1,300$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 66c | 1,243$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,236$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.87 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…3093backed Yes | 64c | 1,161$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4097…da98backed Yes | 56c | 1,069$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 72c | 978.9$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…0419backed Yes | 60c | 973.6$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 18c | 928.92$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.65 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 45c | 912$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 45c | 888$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…5d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 55c | 779.5$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 65c | 740.8$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 45c | 649$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 63c | 626$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.38 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea1…c38ebacked Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed No | 31c | 591.02$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.67 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 62c | 567.04$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…26a7backed No | 45c | 528.03$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed Yes | 66c | 500$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +66%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 26c | 499$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 64c | 494.99$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.09 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 34c | 491.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.35 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed No | 43c | 482.12$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.79 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 469.21$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.34 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…abdcbacked Yes | 57c | 412.4$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed No | 42c | 410.26$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.26 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d45…0951backed Yes | 69c | 401.8$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 68c | 400$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.99 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…7ae7backed No | 37c | 373.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 41c | 357.87$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.49 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 55c | 344$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 45c | 344$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…9713backed No | 62c | 322.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 308.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.11 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…746fbacked Yes | 67c | 300.01$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 50c | 295$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 68c | 271$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.28 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2a37backed No | 37c | 268.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 258.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.35 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 47c | 250.31$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 64c | 215.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…fdf9backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked Yes | 67c | 209.78$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 33c | 198.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 29c | 197$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 45c | 186.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 172.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.21 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 59c | 169.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…7cccbacked Yes | 60c | 165.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 44c | 165$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f01…7100backed Yes | 63c | 157.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +11.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7fcabacked Yes | 62c | 144.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed No | 35c | 143.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 56c | 137.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 66c | 113.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 35c | 112.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 111.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 52c | 107.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb9…901bbacked Yes | 57c | 104.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…8d31backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…4f75backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…85f8backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +75%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 43c | 97.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7868…e699backed Yes | 60c | 94.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…b35dbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.