World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeaf19bac7b633b976bb37ee13518d1e81f5f08032970aefde8b4664fab88f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b46…1263backed Yes | 19c | 7,957$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 0c | 7,209$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…dad2backed Yes | 24c | 5,485$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.08 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80a…07f1backed Yes | 0c | 5,216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 40c | 4,809$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,904.09 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 4,200$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.29 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,111$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 38c | 3,326$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.25 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 33c | 2,334$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60be…f164backed No | 15c | 2,178$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.04 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 21c | 2,003$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…23bcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,826$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 23c | 1,750$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 1c | 1,661$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 65c | 1,497$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.26 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 77c | 1,338$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.54 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 23c | 1,298$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x085f…eacfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,256$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…34b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,211$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 23c | 1,060$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.61 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 78c | 886.7$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 39c | 737.43$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.16 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed No | 19c | 698$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.47 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…43b8backed Yes | 5c | 639.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…fdf9backed Yes | 16c | 564.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked Yes | 79c | 550$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…e118backed Yes | 2c | 515.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 44c | 474.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 80c | 455.89$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.15 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 13c | 422$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.3 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed No | 15c | 375.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.69 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 375.29$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 18c | 339.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.43 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…678ebacked No | 21c | 333.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 325.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.72 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed No | 19c | 309.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.79 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 57c | 300$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc2…b913backed Yes | 4c | 257.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 65c | 232.85$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…1a71backed No | 18c | 227.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.46 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +6.0wins | +0.43per pick | 50cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed Yes | 78c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 18c | 198$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.96 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed No | 13c | 189.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 160.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 9c | 158$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.1 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 8c | 154.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.14 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 9c | 149.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…dc86backed Yes | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…d186backed Yes | 78c | 127.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed No | 18c | 109.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 85.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 30c | 85.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 27c | 80.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked No | 26c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…f6c4backed No | 22c | 69.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…7ae7backed Yes | 78c | 63.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa370…f2adbacked No | 26c | 58.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…aed2backed Yes | 76c | 54.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e53…c137backed Yes | 78c | 44.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…8974backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…4055backed Yes | 34c | 39.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…beddbacked Yes | 32c | 33.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 69c | 31.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…abdcbacked Yes | 79c | 22.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…86b6backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 79c | 19.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…e74ebacked Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.