TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

US x China tariff agreement by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$145,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc662…b919backed No73c6,316$4,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes11c3,354$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No51c3,084$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes53c2,778$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.93714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick47cpaid-64.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes44c2,720$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.672259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes35c2,550$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes40c2,388$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.11850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed No39c2,160$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.51540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d97…2b93backed Yes10c2,120$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked No64c2,119$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.7683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+84.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes57c1,613$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.171233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes25c1,556$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes29c1,536$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.7650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf4…527fbacked Yes35c1,529$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+222.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes14c1,442$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No48c1,317$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.29933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c2…9ab4backed Yes24c1,248$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes64c1,231$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes54c1,182$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No56c1,162$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.521471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+34.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes11c1,030$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No78c1,024$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.61850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bd6…10d4backed No78c1,023$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c1,022$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.285345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No45c1,021$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.172524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes41c1,003$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.662810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes27c999.39$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.0470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes46c996$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes38c982.84$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec2…55dabacked Yes18c966.12$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No59c947.41$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+471.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes39c937.16$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf8…b8eabacked No72c908$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.38366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes15c889.21$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133170%0 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c880.47$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.53225%8 W · 24 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes15c838.28$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.49568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa761…8f4ebacked Yes23c747.59$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.88425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No69c735.74$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.743778.4%29 W · 8 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes14c711.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.861330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabcc…2fd5backed Yes13c698.56$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…ae29backed Yes58c689.66$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes37c688.28$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.753327.3%9 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No34c673.38$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes60c660$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed No51c654.89$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.724100%4 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+312.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No73c654.26$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.541154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes48c637.35$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.981546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…2494backed Yes32c610.24$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+221.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes67c605.68$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.691030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked No40c600.02$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes36c599.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+131.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc23…6043backed No79c598.88$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.911070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x649e…02c9backed Yes17c580.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes29c571.14$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.111050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed No35c558.02$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+187.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4178…defabacked Yes65c551.97$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No73c542.83$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes17c538.94$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.291010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-85.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6435…cbc8backed Yes26c532.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0978…3137backed Yes32c524.65$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c97…fa05backed Yes38c523.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked No59c506.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed No33c500$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3351040%4 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+562.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No52c499.98$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.99875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+60.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6aea…2c56backed Yes21c481.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No73c475.9$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No62c455.17$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.111650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c436.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.41277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…fa04backed No32c425$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2891100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1264…2a84backed Yes16c405.02$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.57540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+122.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes26c397.85$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.381030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed No78c383.89$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.89520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-74.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes27c376.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes20c369.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.682718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c364.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.15563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c40…f17abacked Yes25c358.26$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8f…6f11backed No73c356.7$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…1ba9backed Yes47c350$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes37c345$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes30c344.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed No40c327.93$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda7…b649backed Yes51c321.42$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…bac6backed Yes48c320$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5665…b378backed Yes68c310.74$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.320%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9456…4f9fbacked No58c300$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked Yes15c295.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked Yes22c286.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes26c269.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06df…3b05backed No59c267.42$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed Yes39c258$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaeb…9670backed Yes61c254$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+80.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes24c250$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No47c249.43$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.841520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes50c243.2$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.556933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.