Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5298a3e5e94c53db578af5b5e66b48e41f0b5accb2781776cfa218c43301fd39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 63c | 7,134$4,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.28 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 50c | 6,317$3,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.6 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 43c | 2,979$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.34 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 45c | 2,643$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.83 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 18c | 2,270$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.98 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,461$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.08 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 30c | 1,428$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.74 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 67c | 1,094$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.57 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 23c | 1,090$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.66 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…88c0backed Yes | 20c | 1,004$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 73c | 996.58$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.71 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 18c | 990.74$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.17 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 66c | 965.49$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.45 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 62c | 799.99$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.69 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 78c | 500.32$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.09 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 57c | 475.57$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 419.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 66c | 399.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 50c | 368.68$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.56 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 50c | 365.41$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.41 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…02d8backed Yes | 8c | 364.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 359.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 14c | 329.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 327.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 11c | 320$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…75c6backed No | 42c | 319.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd01…4f9ebacked Yes | 35c | 313.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 41c | 301.1$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked No | 46c | 297.9$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 21c | 293.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 21c | 272$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 230.54$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 63c | 212$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 31c | 208.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 49c | 199.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 194.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…d6d9backed No | 53c | 190.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 145.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 144$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 78c | 139.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd58a…5448backed Yes | 9c | 129.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…da24backed No | 79c | 126.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 38c | 121.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91b…29a7backed No | 79c | 108.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 28c | 108.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 50c | 105.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 50c | 99.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…c757backed Yes | 16c | 96.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 51c | 90.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…c74bbacked Yes | 25c | 87.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Yes | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed Yes | 67c | 80.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 41c | 73.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed No | 37c | 72.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes | 56c | 71.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 70.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 67.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…e439backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 55.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…f563backed Yes | 54c | 55.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 54.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…c7eabacked Yes | 59c | 53.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 78c | 51.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 30c | 44.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 38c | 38.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…9275backed No | 42c | 37.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…7e3dbacked No | 65c | 36.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3566…10febacked Yes | 31c | 35.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…37c9backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 55c | 33.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 33.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…a294backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635e…1f63backed Yes | 49c | 31.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…9cd0backed Yes | 35c | 31.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…637abacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33fe…d8d0backed Yes | 39c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 64c | 26.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…3e4ebacked Yes | 42c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 54c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784c…9c49backed Yes | 54c | 23.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…f762backed Yes | 52c | 20.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cb…a695backed Yes | 55c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.