Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfafd078f403f65a51e71a64f668c7f9262cb207788c7bf72951df27cd2013661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 74c | 5,121$3,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.57 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 35c | 4,806$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.37 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 44c | 3,628$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.62 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 19c | 2,852$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.45 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 71c | 2,850$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.58 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 66c | 2,593$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.09 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc48f…87d8backed No | 59c | 1,974$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 70c | 1,952$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.35 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 37c | 1,755$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.11 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…08c5backed Yes | 30c | 1,368$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed Yes | 47c | 1,287$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 32c | 1,254$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.48 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,050$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.16 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 80c | 999.99$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 37c | 910.21$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 898.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.1 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 61c | 793.85$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 53c | 734.62$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.02 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 72c | 630$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.5 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 24c | 602.42$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.85 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 600$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…9f95backed Yes | 36c | 515.48$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 40c | 473.25$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 455.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 415.93$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.03 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 61c | 325$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 16c | 320$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 48c | 319.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 74c | 308.15$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 36c | 305.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…8af3backed No | 70c | 285.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f9…83b0backed No | 68c | 280.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 8c | 279.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.51 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad82…1075backed No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…d300backed No | 16c | 267.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 75c | 265.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 259.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0639…75c6backed No | 78c | 258.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 228.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 21c | 223$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked No | 44c | 216.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…40e4backed No | 49c | 205.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 205.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 73c | 199.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…4786backed Yes | 31c | 190.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 69c | 178.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 159.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed Yes | 21c | 154.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 149.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 80c | 149$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…11c4backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 23c | 135.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 131.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 49c | 131.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 126.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…9a26backed No | 20c | 126.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 53c | 123.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 28c | 123.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 117.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa257…9233backed Yes | 20c | 111.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…7e60backed No | 15c | 110.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 53c | 105.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 103$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 39c | 101.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 17c | 98.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 14c | 94.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked No | 79c | 93.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…6054backed Yes | 28c | 88.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 15c | 86.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 25c | 86.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 24c | 85.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 73c | 85.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 26c | 84.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 21c | 80.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 19c | 78.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a00…60aabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 65c | 70.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…d0e2backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 75c | 68.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0a…a3b9backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd01…4f9ebacked Yes | 18c | 65.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 77c | 65.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.