TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3566…10fe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.98
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.33
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+176.2%+$28.49
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.67
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$14.12
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+445.2%+$68.13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$5.94
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+84.7%+$10.61
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$5.35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$15.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+196.9%+$30.93
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+89.4%+$11.8
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$10.7
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.67
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+107.5%+$18.1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$9.3
All 22 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Golden Bullsbacked Zhejiang Golden Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanxi Loongsbacked Zhejiang Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.29
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Belluccibacked Mattia Bellucci · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Christian Edwards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.