TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$284,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes33c43,768$14,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,467.767749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No32c27,305$8,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,716.52378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes76c18,612$14,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,468.411376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes75c15,679$11,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,964.9915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7bd…84a0backed No67c11,404$7,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,640.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No17c8,776$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.914835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No51c8,332$4,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,283.2314729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No30c7,248$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.3321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes76c6,579$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.92785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick77cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c6,252$4,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.5331534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No3c6,165$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.175111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked No16c5,664$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.253920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No24c5,603$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.834333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcffc…6cacbacked No2c5,385$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes78c5,235$4,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.964443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No67c5,024$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+121%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes66c4,788$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.5110740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No33c4,335$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,442.210245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0778…73d1backed No22c4,271$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.33030%9 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes21c4,153$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,275.3811522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No35c3,915$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.581717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes79c3,600$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74414356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No64c3,333$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.7913625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No52c3,140$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.721650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No42c2,971$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.1410739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes30c2,941$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.727448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes65c2,800$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9806750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No21c2,649$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.361936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No44c2,446$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.363941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No21c2,285$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.444346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes78c2,059$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.05683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No51c2,010$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.39035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No65c1,900$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.2221161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c1,833$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.1118237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No36c1,792$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.9518041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No54c1,743$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.5917140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x077e…06d2backed No67c1,660$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No24c1,603$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.848234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No29c1,446$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.973751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Yes74c1,343$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.481163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c1,316$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes39c1,278$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.58837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No38c1,202$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes70c1,178$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3525547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x209a…9a8dbacked No70c1,165$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No39c1,152$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.055839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed No69c1,114$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.771136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes75c1,057$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.615547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes33c1,056$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.354544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No36c1,049$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.764841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2db…2f89backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes60c950.37$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.676355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed Yes33c920.09$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.182369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No37c901.76$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.8613143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes76c899.99$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No42c893.51$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.0324831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes27c886.91$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.366152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes60c883.75$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.5524433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No36c846.58$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2933421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2309…67c6backed No69c800.48$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f4f…0ef3backed Yes71c758.76$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed No28c752.04$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.724136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No53c740$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.7212330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No38c702.93$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.397035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fc8…d0dbbacked No28c670.09$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.63560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No20c658$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.378535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No47c642.6$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.499819.4%19 W · 79 L-10.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No31c635.69$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.88541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No11c635$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0710947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes12c600$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52822833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No42c600$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.759326.9%25 W · 68 L-8.2wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3fd…d854backed No68c589.97$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.1840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes15c587.71$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.6215232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No43c579.22$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0910946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7f…b15bbacked No46c578.53$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No38c553.8$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.237451.4%38 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No30c518.48$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.235137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked Yes72c506$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x333d…e8b7backed No67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1154748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3557326%19 W · 54 L-10.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b85…8363backed No69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3451250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No71c500$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No45c495.62$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.584940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No35c414.85$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6710048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No28c411.57$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.144940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No34c400$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.54119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No26c399.98$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9914019.3%27 W · 113 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…97eabacked No62c399.77$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed Yes49c390$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.43243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No29c388.53$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.864942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4823…9448backed No69c377$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.13785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick51cpaid+115.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c9e…bdb6backed No69c362$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.78933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6aa…178ebacked Yes71c354.1$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.161450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes67c353.18$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.711553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No18c350$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.55637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No30c346.17$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.85244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No28c344$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.524847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No40c343.63$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.455139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No31c342.7$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.786036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.