TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e73…6697backed Yes54c4,469$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,418.375244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes16c2,900$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.993844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f79…5487backed Yes2c2,747$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+116.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes3c2,386$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5416616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed No46c1,973$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.352927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c1,800$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No40c1,713$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.114045%18 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes18c1,639$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0519315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,518$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.241,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No20c1,479$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.975149%25 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+168.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No53c1,422$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.542751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes20c1,308$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.2326632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c1,296$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.848236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c0…2713backed No31c1,293$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+169.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No49c1,280$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.491947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes54c1,257$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.161827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007526.7%20 W · 55 L+9.2wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+63.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No48c1,132$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.8911435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes10c1,087$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c1,029$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1718216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c1,009$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3517921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x022c…4873backed Yes70c857.69$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a22…17a6backed Yes75c834.43$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.985446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No68c771.19$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.1314637%54 W · 92 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes50c743.37$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.092540%10 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc28d…1773backed Yes7c700$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No41c691.08$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.877833.3%26 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Yes76c653.79$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-56.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9a2…40c4backed Yes79c635.21$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No24c537.8$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.6511020.9%23 W · 87 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No53c508.35$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.953243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No21c499.98$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.992548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3c…ba69backed Yes79c457.18$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes6c424.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5718445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No77c407.35$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6913918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes10c365$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c55…3408backed No53c332.4$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes65c326.9$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.351631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes45c311.92$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.013551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9d4…9002backed No33c304.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c289.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.442543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf34…dc86backed Yes59c287.51$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.391040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed No47c284.23$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.161361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf03…9db4backed Yes78c257.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f5…d417backed Yes9c231.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes53c226.22$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.562240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes6c225.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0813225%33 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes7c220$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.69237%34 W · 58 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf65…d214backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No19c191.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.0110844.4%48 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes56c177.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.61850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes52c162.95$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.733040%12 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes43c161.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8724637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No30c160.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7927438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed No62c156.15$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.43742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No22c150$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1172937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes33c144.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6945723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb980…73b0backed No48c141.21$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes34c141.01$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.997123.9%17 W · 54 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+86.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fac…ee47backed Yes8c139.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d5…9925backed No64c135$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.51471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No21c135$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6510243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5bb…d51abacked Yes75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed No25c128.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.253740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+67.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x983a…ca05backed Yes35c121.22$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes57c120.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8288448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356b…740fbacked Yes10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2947…4cf4backed No45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.113265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No22c109.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.311230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe96d…a747backed No46c107.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.03650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6751…2d87backed Yes50c106.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed No21c100.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.011283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+45%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a3…27ffbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked No21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.11145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d2b…b548backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad6e…9244backed No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe522…8c25backed No48c95.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.881154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No47c94.75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.65650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba1f…4258backed No57c94.06$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.171662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+69.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No63c78.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.92138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes47c75.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1316834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes20c72.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4810542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x736b…2e90backed No63c71.43$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.43560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3c…8e0bbacked No45c68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+70.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x369c…eab1backed Yes61c64.49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.111464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No62c60.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.366850%34 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.211161.3%68 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a52…a10dbacked Yes52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1308…45c6backed No76c59.46$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.271050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes52c56.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7010…eedebacked No46c55.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.031154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3566…10febacked Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.