Music · resolved market
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd05a46fdedf9fcf1aea72f93e087ab84a75453788e616870d4c4436af3c24b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 14c | 1,119$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 45c | 248.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 242.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.75 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 36c | 223.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 208.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.59 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 15c | 180.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +198.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 17c | 168.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +489.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 77c | 167.48$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 17c | 161.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed Yes | 12c | 143.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e2…0ae9backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 29c | 117.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…9090backed No | 68c | 114.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d8…620abacked Yes | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 16c | 102.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 50c | 96.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 39c | 87.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa857…08b6backed Yes | 21c | 87.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 17c | 77.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 71c | 76.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…699dbacked No | 72c | 69.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 17c | 64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf50e…68a1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 67c | 61.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 22c | 54.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +290.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 22.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 80c | 20.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?this page
- Will "2026" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Armani" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Batman" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Caleb" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kanye" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kendrick" or "Lamar" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "No No No" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Nuclear" or "Nuke" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Pinocchio" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Russia" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Super Bowl" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Trump" or "Obama" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Virgil" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.