Music · resolved market
Will "Pinocchio" be said on ICEMAN?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1809554465a0a06c0ce9e7517269ce43dc0908048cd5ea7e7cb537a6b03f0d10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 52c | 269.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.15 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5c…7cf7backed No | 60c | 138$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 119$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff2…cbd4backed No | 61c | 79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 61c | 59.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 44c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…5e49backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Pinocchio" be said on ICEMAN?this page
- Will "2026" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Armani" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Batman" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Caleb" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Epstein" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kanye" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Kendrick" or "Lamar" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "No No No" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Nuclear" or "Nuke" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Russia" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Six Seven" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Super Bowl" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Toronto" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
- Will "Trump" or "Obama" be said on ICEMAN?No won
- Will "Virgil" be said on ICEMAN?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.