TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "Covid" be said on ICEMAN?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3574…0f66backed Yes45c1,893$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0c7…133dbacked No55c820$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes73c662.67$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked No28c650.02$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.723151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No54c554.25$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.37842.3%33 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes66c442.73$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.112951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No30c420.36$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…49c9backed No30c311.07$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+141.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No31c305.94$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.845825.9%15 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…c75fbacked No34c271.91$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.611050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes13c203.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.48633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92a…a51cbacked No31c190.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.67580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+53.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No63c170.11$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No10c153.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+37.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba54…699dbacked No34c148.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5e…64ddbacked No30c130$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d0…b8ddbacked No16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dc8…a7a5backed No32c110.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+90.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3512234.4%42 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414c…e4d3backed No25c99.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Yes68c95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+103.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes54c85.63$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.75054%27 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee6b…e9d8backed Yes59c81.95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed No45c70.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.831926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No16c69.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.723342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08a6…f1bbbacked Yes68c66.67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014f…f58cbacked No23c63.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes69c55.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.325572.7%40 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No29c49.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.664362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85f1…e20dbacked Yes69c49.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb93f…67e5backed No42c48.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c46.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1522640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed Yes70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Yes74c43.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No35c41.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.523710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid+62.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6a…a71dbacked No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x932f…e10ebacked No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.271637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfb…e887backed Yes45c39.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0815…1dc5backed No27c39.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb557…ef84backed No27c38.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6746…d842backed No54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ce…83a4backed No72c36.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick71cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No41c35.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa215…6c76backed No32c33.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…9e36backed No59c30.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef6d…9bd2backed No64c29.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa92…cda4backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfeba…7a91backed Yes71c27.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes61c23.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes56c19.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+81.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed Yes70c17.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.