TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe92a…a51c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Lol at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT2466.7%16 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Cup Finals: Coin Toss Resultbacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Will Post Malone perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$178.08
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$41.99
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$111.74
Will Lionel Messi score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$175.5
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$24.35
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$340
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$202.67
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$115.35
Switzerland to score first vs. Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$66.67
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$92.31
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$376
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+102.6%+$256.38
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$59.4
All 24 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+53.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLBlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+107.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$132.56
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Xtreme Gaming (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$15.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovicbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Misa Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffsbacked Misa Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.