Fifa International · resolved market
World Cup Finals: Coin Toss Result
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904ad5d12629215205de110aa8cb5d73879abf6557872396a42068794554b2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Argentinaof Argentina, Spain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9032…8717backed Spain | 51c | 2,271$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.04 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Spain | 4c | 1,770$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Argentina | 51c | 1,552$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.33 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…bc0cbacked Spain | 11c | 1,047$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Argentina | 49c | 977.87$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc9…cb40backed Spain | 51c | 952.16$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Spain | 3c | 714.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked Spain | 19c | 651.27$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Spain | 27c | 617.75$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Spain | 20c | 539.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.29 | 263 | 30%79 W · 184 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…b12fbacked Argentina | 51c | 381.95$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Argentina | 62c | 372.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Spain | 47c | 349.98$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.37 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Spain | 9c | 323.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4e…ba20backed Argentina | 62c | 322.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Spain | 11c | 229.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Spain | 9c | 217.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed Argentina | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Argentina | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed Argentina | 50c | 191.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…33d6backed Spain | 8c | 181.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…e621backed Argentina | 51c | 180.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8610…b53fbacked Spain | 53c | 178$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474f…5f02backed Spain | 25c | 129.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…5fc6backed Argentina | 54c | 111.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Argentina | 50c | 110.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 210 | 58.1%122 W · 88 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…c0eebacked Spain | 67c | 104.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc104…f24fbacked Argentina | 79c | 103.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…a51cbacked Argentina | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Argentina | 50c | 91.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 281 | 48.4%136 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb16f…a917backed Argentina | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…cb6fbacked Argentina | 54c | 55.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +326.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Argentina | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Spain | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 462 | 47.6%220 W · 242 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4496…97c0backed Argentina | 60c | 45.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…b33bbacked Spain | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Spain | 50c | 30.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…07e7backed Spain | 54c | 29.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed Argentina | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Argentina | 51c | 22.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Argentina | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cd…b852backed Spain | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…221fbacked Spain | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.