TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,414,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,433,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,414,286 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,032 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4be1…aa70backed G2 Esports34c384,369$131,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252,692.863754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed G2 Esports5c231,687$11,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220,102.2111650%58 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed G2 Esports35c212,128$74,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137,948.1269741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71b0…9ef4backed T10c100,591$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.425252.4%132 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed G2 Esports10c97,685$9,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,944.491,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked T167c64,000$43,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,12017555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed T166c61,357$40,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,495.377156.3%40 W · 31 L-9.1wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-17.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked G2 Esports44c52,128$22,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,209.0167553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked T158c51,963$30,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,17685742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f7…78ebbacked T174c51,805$38,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,373.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef4…e76bbacked G2 Esports55c50,890$28,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,718.178060%48 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed T164c41,644$26,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,789.5451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked T10c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed G2 Esports23c40,000$9,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,603.575628.6%16 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T164c35,000$22,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,40090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed T165c33,738$21,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,940.971,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T151c31,000$15,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,789.18259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed G2 Esports10c30,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,999.9827637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed T166c24,511$16,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,177.261,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f3…37f9backed G2 Esports80c23,932$19,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,865.4315356.9%87 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked G2 Esports31c22,435$7,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,418.8125944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed G2 Esports27c22,222$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,222.0453750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed T169c21,255$14,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,666.096046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T165c20,181$13,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,046.7132150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked T164c20,000$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,799.951,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed T164c19,600$12,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,54430845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa87d…e4bfbacked T168c17,560$11,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,940.611612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid+141.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed T10c16,574$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.177869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed G2 Esports37c15,746$5,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,879.5819122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T166c15,400$10,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,151.991,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed T165c15,000$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,75059450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed G2 Esports33c15,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,049.9739851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed T164c14,300$9,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,15212642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed G2 Esports73c13,440$9,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,647.411,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed G2 Esports55c12,834$7,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,828.2867276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed G2 Esports79c12,593$9,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.8935448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked T153c11,500$6,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,124.9942149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed G2 Esports5c11,231$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,673.844120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835c…a5eebacked G2 Esports36c11,122$4,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,089.132544%11 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed G2 Esports21c11,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,699.9616058.8%94 W · 66 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf030…12e2backed G2 Esports34c10,355$3,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,828.6913371.4%95 W · 38 L+23.5wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed T165c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50021144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked T166c10,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.868339.8%33 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed T164c9,375$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed T164c9,375$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00023672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed G2 Esports27c9,165$2,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,718.075932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf032…895dbacked T178c9,000$6,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,991.2221859.6%130 W · 88 L+14.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked T167c9,000$6,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,029.9649541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd799…3395backed G2 Esports32c8,975$2,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,102.813458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed T162c8,774$5,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,463.9741439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed T179c8,467$6,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,685.1313450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed G2 Esports6c8,338$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,858.3941347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed T165c8,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.9991854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked G2 Esports15c7,812$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,630.061,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed T173c7,700$5,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,63012943.4%56 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed G2 Esports36c7,500$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80064155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked T168c7,400$5,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,03229443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed T166c7,085$4,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,694.1585836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed T168c7,050$4,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,793.995147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed G2 Esports15c6,775$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,775.536943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed T128c6,658$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.8248533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed G2 Esports15c6,534$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,583.8445248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e32…8a33backed G2 Esports10c6,500$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,845.71911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked T165c6,448$4,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,17637640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T171c6,230$4,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,394.359558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked T161c6,133$3,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,741.124344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed G2 Esports53c6,107$3,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.089542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked T164c6,000$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,84030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed G2 Esports15c6,000$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,08594237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad2b…2a8ebacked T13c6,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504837.5%18 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac3…eda2backed G2 Esports6c6,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.974332.6%14 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed G2 Esports27c5,851$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,246.4442852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed G2 Esports35c5,842$2,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,786.2222640.7%92 W · 134 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked G2 Esports36c5,750$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6802,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a23…3253backed G2 Esports79c5,750$4,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.510557.1%60 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed T168c5,730$3,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,901.2755844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70cf…1b41backed T11c5,684$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.07140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked G2 Esports31c5,661$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,923.3989050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked T167c5,618$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,764.2452065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed T165c5,600$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,64011643.1%50 W · 66 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked T173c5,481$4,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,008.491,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b26…6091backed G2 Esports14c5,452$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,686.153327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd2…4cb9backed T12c5,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96280%0 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked T166c5,120$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,354.27339.7%29 W · 44 L-9.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed T168c5,015$3,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,409.0448448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed G2 Esports20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00018132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b36…b103backed T120c5,000$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.0213360.2%80 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd432…0624backed T168c5,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked T125c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.9930321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed G2 Esports19c4,951$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,026.0248157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed G2 Esports3c4,884$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,713.3315429.9%46 W · 108 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+81.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked T138c4,497$1,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,688.849833.7%33 W · 65 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked G2 Esports24c4,463$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,400.1966559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed G2 Esports25c4,333$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,233.163630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked G2 Esports32c4,304$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.0228642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked G2 Esports7c4,230$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,944.696297%44 W · 585 L-2.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed T153c4,194$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,208.7616954.4%92 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed G2 Esports36c4,167$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.679556.8%54 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed G2 Esports7c4,084$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,798.4119041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed T155c4,055$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.6176639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.