TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,648,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,934,816

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,648,884 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 906 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa57d…701fbacked T151c53,703$27,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,496.8512446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f7…78ebbacked G2 Esports27c40,042$10,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,395.17425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed T172c39,564$28,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,668.546046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked T145c35,138$15,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,710.7184942.5%361 W · 488 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T129c33,765$9,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,778.22,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed G2 Esports25c28,888$7,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,665.9653750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked T173c28,788$21,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,001.3670857.1%404 W · 304 L+41.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed T173c27,453$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00039964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked G2 Esports29c25,844$7,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,340.8190348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed T169c25,610$17,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,685.1169741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef4…e76bbacked G2 Esports57c25,136$14,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,791.268060%48 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed G2 Esports27c22,010$5,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,067.430845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked T172c21,460$15,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,353.7218961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed T170c20,000$13,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,899.9821144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed G2 Esports29c18,637$5,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,299.2748149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T170c15,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.968259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed T139c14,572$5,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,718.261,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed G2 Esports28c14,227$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,291.71,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed T174c13,886$10,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,249.5321056.7%119 W · 91 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed G2 Esports27c13,778$3,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,057.9451146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked G2 Esports28c13,131$3,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,454.321,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked G2 Esports35c12,500$4,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,154.7953255.1%293 W · 239 L+23.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed G2 Esports30c12,047$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,471.61,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked T171c11,800$8,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,332.211931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd14c…5fbdbacked G2 Esports54c11,295$6,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,208.6311635.3%41 W · 75 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked G2 Esports28c11,000$3,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,889.7430945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed T141c11,000$4,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,564.9912943.4%56 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed T172c10,415$7,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,507.548949.4%44 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed G2 Esports28c10,311$2,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,464.9785836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed T111c10,000$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.3919122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked T173c10,000$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,30049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed T120c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9918132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed G2 Esports28c10,000$2,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,229.9547533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked G2 Esports51c9,009$4,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,451.0734536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed G2 Esports28c9,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,519.983,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked G2 Esports52c8,573$4,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,091.061,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T140c8,517$3,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,415.2332150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed T11c8,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked T156c8,000$4,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,514.895251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed G2 Esports28c7,073$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,073.2257957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed G2 Esports65c6,971$4,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.842,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked G2 Esports29c6,683$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,727.1188950.5%449 W · 440 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed T175c6,660$4,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,99522355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed T167c6,345$4,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,271.8921347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed G2 Esports48c6,277$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,237.6435448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70dc…1dfdbacked T171c6,200$4,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,401.9910547.6%50 W · 55 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked G2 Esports29c6,022$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,275.3967760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed G2 Esports30c6,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2301,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked G2 Esports27c6,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3805429.6%16 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T171c6,000$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,26059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed G2 Esports30c6,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.991,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed T172c6,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,319.9839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked T116c5,908$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.318933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9078…fb78backed T158c5,735$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.385040%20 W · 30 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+28.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed T143c5,683$2,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.9189347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32eb…ded0backed G2 Esports44c5,680$2,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,167.1331644.3%140 W · 176 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed G2 Esports29c5,662$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,039.4559554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed T168c5,625$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,819.9714360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked G2 Esports44c5,562$2,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.724344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x515e…8309backed T164c5,559$3,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,584.642751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked T172c5,550$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99632555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed G2 Esports27c5,300$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.4846050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked T172c5,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6001,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked T173c5,000$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,65019451%99 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed T11c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb398…4a9fbacked T172c5,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6001450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555f…83a0backed G2 Esports30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.982250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed G2 Esports39c4,982$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,043.1636943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a6…7a0abacked T168c4,894$3,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.093545.7%16 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-14%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked G2 Esports31c4,839$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.7126549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed G2 Esports65c4,767$3,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.7213450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8f…74debacked T171c4,507$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6be9backed G2 Esports26c4,498$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,328.51650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed G2 Esports44c4,445$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,496.295932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed T129c4,359$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.2449461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed G2 Esports31c4,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.9948533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd89b…c72abacked T174c3,995$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,956.0620%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed G2 Esports71c3,983$2,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.1455844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed T134c3,982$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.1744120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked G2 Esports28c3,968$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.8659148.2%285 W · 306 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked T118c3,775$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.3763344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46a8…cde8backed G2 Esports30c3,700$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.986755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed G2 Esports69c3,698$2,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.739542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed G2 Esports28c3,649$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.0942852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked T156c3,500$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.9942149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed T168c3,490$2,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,385.6667276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed T118c3,465$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.653225%8 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked G2 Esports29c3,410$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.7428642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked G2 Esports30c3,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.3335353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc6f…6c5cbacked G2 Esports30c3,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.3315443.5%67 W · 87 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked G2 Esports34c3,270$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.0552065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed G2 Esports29c3,250$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.491,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked T132c3,225$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.7424832.3%80 W · 168 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed T161c3,217$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.1338339.7%152 W · 231 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeffb…4fb5backed G2 Esports33c3,182$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.825248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked T173c3,092$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,256.7718459.8%110 W · 74 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed G2 Esports27c3,059$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,218.5956432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked G2 Esports26c3,051$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.359040%36 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835c…a5eebacked G2 Esports33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0102544%11 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T171c3,000$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1301,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.