Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14148ec53b33b1e45d94c4e6f637afe0f83cb5de692597616ebe54e61b1ab975
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Under | 44c | 1,127$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Over | 56c | 1,117$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.7 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 45c | 499.96$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 41c | 335.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.69 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 60c | 205.49$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 40c | 191.18$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…91c6backed Over | 56c | 177.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…1934backed Under | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed Over | 55c | 123.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Under | 48c | 113.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 224 | 62.1%139 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Over | 52c | 105.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Over | 59c | 78.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 246 | 56.1%138 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…6d30backed Over | 80c | 73.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 59c | 67.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Over | 53c | 56.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 373 | 42.9%160 W · 213 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…56fbbacked Over | 59c | 50.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…1dc6backed Over | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…da1fbacked Under | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 317 | 50.8%161 W · 156 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…87c7backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 67cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 50c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Over | 52c | 23.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?G2 Esports won
- First Blood in Game 2?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 3?T1 won
- First Blood in Game 4?T1 won
- Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?Odd won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)G2 Esports won
- Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5)G2 Esports won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)G2 Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerG2 Esports won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 4 WinnerG2 Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.