TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfaab…82a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
214
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst Tennis at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT13451.5%69 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 134 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$454.47
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
First Blood in Game 2?backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$147.95
First Blood in Game 1?backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
First Blood in Game 2?backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+73.6%+$11.04
First Blood in Game 1?backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$240.67
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$58.73
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winnerbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
First Blood in Game 1?backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$70.94
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
First Blood in Game 2?backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$124.15
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$533.8
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.18
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Groupbacked T1 Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$16.43
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$21.25
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked Kiwoom DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 134 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6056.7%34 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 60 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$56.58
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+52.8%+$58.07
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$5.24
France vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$24.55
Will France vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$13.07
England vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$32.56
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$14.94
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$33.78
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$13.17
France vs. Morocco: France O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10.67
Showing 25 of 60 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shangbacked Juncheng Shang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.93
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5)backed Faria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$16.84
Estoril Open: Pedro Martinez vs Luciano Darderibacked Luciano Darderi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Alex Molcanbacked Alexander Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Pablo Carreno Busta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Hanfmann vs. Baez: Match O/U 21.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Generali Open: Mariano Navone vs Quentin Halysbacked Mariano Navone · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Winnipeg: Yosuke Watanuki vs Toby Samuelbacked Toby Samuel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$9.72
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+124.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+124.7%+$37.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Luke Riley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
La Velada del Año 6: IlloJuan vs TheGrefgbacked TheGrefg · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs The Last Resort (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Group Bbacked BASEMENT BOYS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$8.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)backed Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Dbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jeff Bezos Announced as New Liverpool Owner in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.