Tennis · resolved market
Winnipeg: Yosuke Watanuki vs Toby Samuel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x954ca5f9f46c16b765f209547922dd6ee1d7d0e0921949fae427dbcb957ea230
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toby Samuelof Yosuke Watanuki, Toby Samuel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yosuke Watanuki | 2c | 18,554$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.57 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yosuke Watanuki | 9c | 1,362$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yosuke Watanuki | 6c | 600.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yosuke Watanuki | 11c | 355.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Yosuke Watanuki | 28c | 305.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yosuke Watanuki | 30c | 219.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Toby Samuel | 70c | 214.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Toby Samuel | 71c | 212.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Yosuke Watanuki | 29c | 197.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yosuke Watanuki | 25c | 190$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…1d37backed Yosuke Watanuki | 12c | 166.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1,065 | 54.7%583 W · 482 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0d…6b6abacked Yosuke Watanuki | 7c | 165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Toby Samuel | 72c | 153.47$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Toby Samuel | 72c | 148.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Yosuke Watanuki | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…2f58backed Yosuke Watanuki | 14c | 106.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Toby Samuel | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Yosuke Watanuki | 27c | 74.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked Toby Samuel | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Toby Samuel | 69c | 64.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Toby Samuel | 71c | 54.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Yosuke Watanuki | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…7982backed Yosuke Watanuki | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yosuke Watanuki | 28c | 47.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 24c | 46.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…ec45backed Toby Samuel | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…722ebacked Toby Samuel | 73c | 41.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Toby Samuel | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Toby Samuel | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…e4e3backed Toby Samuel | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Toby Samuel | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 944 | 47.7%450 W · 494 L | +34.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toby Samuel | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e5…2300backed Toby Samuel | 71c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 55 | 89.1%49 W · 6 L | +9.3wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Toby Samuel | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Winnipeg: Yosuke Watanuki vs Toby Samuelthis page
- Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Watanuki (+1.5)Samuel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.