TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KT Rolsterof T1, KT Rolster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,586,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,858,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,586,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 784 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed KT Rolster30c154,093$46,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,341.992,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed T10c84,796$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7116150.9%82 W · 79 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed T151c61,518$31,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,463.551,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked KT Rolster39c37,763$14,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,218.8657246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed T170c37,620$26,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,151.1811247.3%53 W · 59 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x444d…a5fcbacked T10c36,226$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4350%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked T171c32,500$23,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,199.9796048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c7…f0a7backed KT Rolster63c30,000$18,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,200.0113061.5%80 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed T166c29,254$19,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,367.6553750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T173c21,890$15,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,927.561,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed KT Rolster67c20,905$13,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,937.0540651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked T139c20,764$8,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,035.541,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed T160c20,525$12,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,402.559955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed T165c19,648$12,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,676.9164155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed KT Rolster37c18,749$6,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,841.2348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fac…1feebacked T173c17,861$13,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,038.853243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed T159c15,316$8,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,989.4214360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed T165c15,000$9,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,769.8930845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed T163c13,829$8,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,64912642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed KT Rolster26c13,663$3,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,110.4516456.7%93 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed KT Rolster36c13,090$4,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,377.463754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed KT Rolster43c12,000$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,820.2955639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked T154c11,916$6,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,378.0195041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed T173c11,845$8,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,646.7215153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked T169c11,069$7,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,627.3929945.8%137 W · 162 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed T157c10,809$6,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,209.8576142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce5…02b3backed T11c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%0 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked KT Rolster37c10,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,30029443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked T150c10,000$4,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,955.5553355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed KT Rolster35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,499.9827637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked KT Rolster37c9,453$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,994.9621968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4074…ea32backed KT Rolster39c9,262$3,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,680.241346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed KT Rolster51c9,032$4,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,419.7430546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf949…3220backed T173c9,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6008951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed T11c9,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed T163c8,886$5,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,598.471,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked KT Rolster27c8,519$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,218.5222048.2%106 W · 114 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed T157c8,100$4,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,608.4422640.7%92 W · 134 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked KT Rolster33c8,019$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,403.491,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed T163c7,936$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.977349.3%36 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed KT Rolster54c7,500$4,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,475.222355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed T170c7,098$4,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,967.977156.3%40 W · 31 L-9.1wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-17.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6236…08d2backed T154c7,090$3,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,863.257143.7%31 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847f…459ebacked T167c6,960$4,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,642.782236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed KT Rolster26c6,890$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,075.3630843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked T140c5,947$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40017852.8%94 W · 84 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c3d…3735backed T165c5,925$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,843.61728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed KT Rolster54c5,837$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.3139447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed KT Rolster28c5,796$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,165.22,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98a…edffbacked T12c5,677$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.533826.3%10 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+311.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked KT Rolster48c5,436$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814.51,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked KT Rolster34c5,250$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,473.882,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed KT Rolster63c5,059$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.3136943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed T161c5,029$3,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.4241439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed KT Rolster29c5,005$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,575.5447533.3%158 W · 317 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked KT Rolster70c4,933$3,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.366338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T142c4,794$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed KT Rolster36c4,684$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,002.121,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed KT Rolster27c4,645$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,391.875728.1%16 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed KT Rolster27c4,630$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,372.2821049.5%104 W · 106 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7e8…db20backed T167c4,503$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed T164c4,477$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.2885836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed T144c4,444$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.1416058.8%94 W · 66 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed KT Rolster56c4,438$2,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.5311367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed T173c4,367$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.9119041.6%79 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked T164c4,338$2,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,776.5118459.8%110 W · 74 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9074…0a7bbacked T164c4,293$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked KT Rolster45c4,212$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.3267553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed T160c4,036$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.0889347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed KT Rolster38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,48048533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked T165c3,941$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,570.531,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed T155c3,661$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00021056.7%119 W · 91 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed KT Rolster65c3,646$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.6151348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked KT Rolster64c3,633$2,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.2217953.1%95 W · 84 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed T173c3,628$2,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.446848.5%33 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16e…bd58backed KT Rolster40c3,577$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.116043.1%69 W · 91 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed T173c3,556$2,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,595.884355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0103…5ca8backed T171c3,528$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.267162%44 W · 27 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed KT Rolster63c3,500$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.281,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed T168c3,459$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.5855844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed T150c3,442$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.4258559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed KT Rolster37c3,432$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,170.8759554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed KT Rolster39c3,350$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.921352.6%112 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked KT Rolster48c3,014$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.666559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x19c0…c8cdbacked KT Rolster23c3,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3103020%6 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked T173c3,000$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19017555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed KT Rolster63c2,963$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.195932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked KT Rolster39c2,890$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.4232145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed KT Rolster35c2,877$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.623445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed T151c2,714$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.938439.8%153 W · 231 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T139c2,702$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.572,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked T137c2,700$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99961045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed T152c2,635$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.1644851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed KT Rolster61c2,558$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.7839162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed KT Rolster63c2,357$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.0437957.5%218 W · 161 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked KT Rolster65c2,316$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.8528642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed T112c2,315$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.632020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed T164c2,256$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.611,25154.1%677 W · 574 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed KT Rolster25c2,250$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.9932844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed KT Rolster26c2,244$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.8221347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.