TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KT Rolsterof T1, KT Rolster
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,586,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,772,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,586,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 742 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked T178c185,882$145,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145,897.1296948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be1…aa70backed KT Rolster20c157,474$32,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,271.163754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed KT Rolster26c131,000$34,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,827.9819239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed T167c103,439$69,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,221.881,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9171…9e5fbacked KT Rolster21c87,963$18,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,482.782623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked KT Rolster46c46,503$21,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,014.2412036.7%44 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked T173c43,017$31,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,407.921931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T178c40,000$31,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,20059658.2%347 W · 249 L-29.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked KT Rolster32c40,000$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,999.9617954.7%98 W · 81 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed T151c38,479$19,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,693.7512642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde82…705dbacked KT Rolster21c38,393$8,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,298.493540%14 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875f…7a90backed T180c37,385$29,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,763.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T170c33,079$23,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,043.531,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked T154c29,686$15,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,926.8725953.7%139 W · 120 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed KT Rolster33c27,071$8,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,093.5420136.8%74 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked KT Rolster48c25,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,999.9426344.5%117 W · 146 L+18.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed KT Rolster56c22,300$12,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,845.946738.8%26 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked KT Rolster49c21,848$10,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,238.420847.6%99 W · 109 L+17.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+37.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed T147c20,569$9,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,602.343542.5%185 W · 250 L+19.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked T154c20,206$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0006437.5%24 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed T152c19,024$9,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,863.0611247.3%53 W · 59 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x444d…a5fcbacked T10c16,991$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed KT Rolster33c15,310$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,310.4818629.6%55 W · 131 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed T152c13,197$6,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,908.7676642%322 W · 444 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked T153c12,549$6,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,636.6895541.7%398 W · 557 L-31.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed T178c12,446$9,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,707.992937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x56b9…79a2backed KT Rolster46c11,712$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.472532%8 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed KT Rolster32c11,520$3,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,849.0622355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed T176c11,490$8,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,787.332,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0882…dceabacked T10c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+65.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0182…5d00backed T152c10,000$5,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,150.83138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…c2d7backed KT Rolster45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.9914652.7%77 W · 69 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed KT Rolster21c10,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,899.9252538.9%204 W · 321 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19c0…c8cdbacked T153c10,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,249.943020%6 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed KT Rolster37c9,517$3,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,007.7959854.2%324 W · 274 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeddb…41bcbacked T178c9,222$7,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,176.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T178c9,000$7,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,02090348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed KT Rolster22c8,861$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,911.5812226.2%32 W · 90 L-11.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed T180c8,729$6,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,983.049955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed KT Rolster47c8,640$4,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,579.179355.9%52 W · 41 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed KT Rolster35c8,489$2,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,521.761,32038.6%510 W · 810 L-66.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x335d…8c00backed T168c8,404$5,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7115366%35 W · 18 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed KT Rolster68c8,321$5,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.9141439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x625e…4de3backed T179c8,000$6,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3201145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked KT Rolster48c7,975$3,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,146.945455.6%30 W · 24 L+6.2wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed T171c7,968$5,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,635.5246451.7%240 W · 224 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed T167c7,200$4,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,788.0390443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed KT Rolster27c7,080$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,189.7548449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed KT Rolster21c7,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,53032534.8%113 W · 212 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed KT Rolster47c7,000$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.9682452.7%434 W · 390 L+41.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked KT Rolster21c7,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,529.950040.8%204 W · 296 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf949…3220backed T178c6,794$5,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,291.78951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked T133c6,585$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,167.3288949.6%441 W · 448 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed KT Rolster45c6,151$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,383.0219342%81 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed KT Rolster46c6,061$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.685949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked T133c6,007$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9871,09147.4%517 W · 574 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KT Rolster40c5,821$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,477.912,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked T155c5,818$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20017953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed KT Rolster47c5,800$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0747664.5%49 W · 27 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed KT Rolster49c5,760$2,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.0127034.8%94 W · 176 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed T126c5,721$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.211,06723.5%251 W · 816 L-76.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked T169c5,655$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.1665544.1%289 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked KT Rolster28c5,564$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,001.3617647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked T132c5,319$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.7997744.8%438 W · 539 L-30.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fe…c916backed KT Rolster60c5,250$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked KT Rolster49c5,222$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,681.625749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed T179c5,200$4,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,107.9839851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed KT Rolster48c5,065$2,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,630.167048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed KT Rolster45c5,008$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.644355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed T154c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7009344.1%41 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked KT Rolster19c5,000$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,05030421.7%66 W · 238 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42e…1196backed T180c5,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed T154c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.9933153.2%176 W · 155 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8be…0061backed T150c4,922$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9074…0a7bbacked T140c4,820$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9385…f3adbacked KT Rolster47c4,681$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.855457.4%31 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x684e…2d3abacked KT Rolster50c4,579$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.341625%4 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-50.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed KT Rolster22c4,545$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,545.456719.4%13 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked T151c4,478$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.113642.6%58 W · 78 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T131c4,401$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.192,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked T180c4,348$3,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478.717844.4%79 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed T168c4,137$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.8944451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa11…e3c0backed T154c3,922$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,110.997335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked KT Rolster46c3,800$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.9610541.9%44 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed KT Rolster20c3,792$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.686136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x018c…9794backed T153c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002650%13 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked KT Rolster22c3,712$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,895.363348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed KT Rolster47c3,625$1,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.2719748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed KT Rolster47c3,552$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.9853047.2%250 W · 280 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6926…152dbacked T177c3,489$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70084360.1%507 W · 336 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed KT Rolster22c3,400$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.971,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked T146c3,173$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.881,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf09b…584ebacked KT Rolster47c3,058$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.734957.1%28 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked KT Rolster45c3,052$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,678.595850%29 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed T165c2,908$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.2548157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81cd…9c75backed T153c2,696$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.681957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked KT Rolster15c2,667$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.6722667.3%152 W · 74 L+27.9wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+36.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed KT Rolster47c2,552$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.6316945%76 W · 93 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed KT Rolster74c2,551$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.189265.2%60 W · 32 L+9.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x16db…ac64backed KT Rolster22c2,505$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.8924323%56 W · 187 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.