Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc97f4880545e168f55d055246ba25eb204391738d1493011ea17ffcf7afadaff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Virtus.pro, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked 1win | 64c | 8,370$5,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,014.71 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a01…c89ebacked Virtus.pro | 18c | 7,226$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.34 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed 1win | 67c | 4,588$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.97 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro | 25c | 4,548$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.42 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 3,577$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.84 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 3,271$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 2,460$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.39 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 1,585$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.07 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…ef29backed 1win | 75c | 1,334$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 1,304$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.32 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Virtus.pro | 35c | 1,286$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…fd36backed Virtus.pro | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…ff0fbacked Virtus.pro | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Virtus.pro | 6c | 995.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed 1win | 67c | 926.85$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.16 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed 1win | 79c | 880.21$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…2a8ebacked Virtus.pro | 3c | 793.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 628.51$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Virtus.pro | 34c | 614.31$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.25 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 545.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed 1win | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed 1win | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Virtus.pro | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 492.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 492.1$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed 1win | 78c | 431.76$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Virtus.pro | 29c | 400.74$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Virtus.pro | 16c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Virtus.pro | 34c | 379.25$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…2573backed 1win | 68c | 347.45$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Virtus.pro | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 93 | 65.6%61 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Virtus.pro | 34c | 259.46$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac8…45c4backed Virtus.pro | 43c | 214.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed 1win | 61c | 193$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Virtus.pro | 18c | 192.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…bcb1backed 1win | 69c | 175$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Virtus.pro | 19c | 172.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…7596backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 168.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed 1win | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…b776backed 1win | 66c | 101.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked 1win | 67c | 100.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…82a4backed Virtus.pro | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…bddfbacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Virtus.pro | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked 1win | 64c | 92.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 88.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed 1win | 67c | 87.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed 1win | 69c | 72.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 64.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked 1win | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 52.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…b43bbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed 1win | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…7de7backed 1win | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed 1win | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked Virtus.pro | 27c | 41.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked 1win | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Virtus.pro | 32c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…ccfbbacked 1win | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed 1win | 67c | 35.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked 1win | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked 1win | 63c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…189fbacked 1win | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed 1win | 68c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed 1win | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed 1win | 67c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…9884backed 1win | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Dthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.