UFC · resolved market
UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d73962569ca46ead8c516eebc1c5fbf201aa048319d0b70cfa51a82f7a37849
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luke Rileyof Kai Kamaka III, Luke Riley
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $483,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $657,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $483,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Luke Riley | 71c | 165,233$117,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,793.95 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Luke Riley | 70c | 50,000$34,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,249.99 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 46,805$14,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,255.79 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 42,500$11,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,900.57 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 38,223$10,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,702.38 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 36,345$10,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,903.62 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Kai Kamaka III | 29c | 17,241$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 15,555$4,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,666.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…87debacked Kai Kamaka III | 31c | 13,500$4,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,175 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 8,401$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.4 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 8,220$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 7,500$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Luke Riley | 70c | 6,871$4,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.33 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Luke Riley | 69c | 6,221$4,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.17 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Luke Riley | 71c | 4,000$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.04 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Kai Kamaka III | 27c | 3,845$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.03 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Kai Kamaka III | 31c | 3,833$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.03 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Luke Riley | 71c | 3,584$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.64 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Kai Kamaka III | 31c | 3,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.96 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.99 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 2,329$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.09 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…2b15backed Kai Kamaka III | 33c | 2,306$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.53 | 161 | 56.5%91 W · 70 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Luke Riley | 67c | 2,257$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.81 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 2,014$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.95 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Kai Kamaka III | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Luke Riley | 69c | 1,928$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.8 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…25f5backed Luke Riley | 70c | 1,830$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Luke Riley | 65c | 1,757$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.44 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…bd73backed Luke Riley | 68c | 1,716$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 1,649$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.68 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Kai Kamaka III | 36c | 1,622$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.73 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Kai Kamaka III | 19c | 1,610$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.87 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 1,593$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Kai Kamaka III | 31c | 1,500$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.49 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…eb10backed Luke Riley | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 1,411$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.08 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Luke Riley | 72c | 1,368$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.9 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Luke Riley | 70c | 1,224$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.26 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Luke Riley | 73c | 1,189$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.04 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Luke Riley | 68c | 1,174$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.27 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…453fbacked Luke Riley | 72c | 1,150$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.65 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…b821backed Luke Riley | 72c | 1,100$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kai Kamaka III | 27c | 1,067$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.12 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Luke Riley | 72c | 1,035$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.92 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Kai Kamaka III | 29c | 1,027$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 863.76$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.13 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Luke Riley | 67c | 841.31$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.63 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Luke Riley | 68c | 824$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.68 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Luke Riley | 73c | 821.92$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Kai Kamaka III | 27c | 799.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Kai Kamaka III | 29c | 794$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.26 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Luke Riley | 71c | 786.65$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.64 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Kai Kamaka III | 33c | 758$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…196abacked Luke Riley | 73c | 700$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…fac1backed Luke Riley | 72c | 699.98$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4fa9backed Luke Riley | 72c | 694.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.47 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Kai Kamaka III | 35c | 605.22$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.88 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Kai Kamaka III | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Kai Kamaka III | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95a…6b78backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 586.06$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…104dbacked Luke Riley | 72c | 585.28$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Kai Kamaka III | 27c | 574.13$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.02 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Kai Kamaka III | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Luke Riley | 71c | 507.31$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Kai Kamaka III | 18c | 505$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Luke Riley | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…f1c3backed Luke Riley | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Kai Kamaka III | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f66fbacked Kai Kamaka III | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Luke Riley | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Luke Riley | 63c | 486$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Luke Riley | 73c | 483.56$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Kai Kamaka III | 31c | 480.77$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Kai Kamaka III | 32c | 468.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Luke Riley | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Luke Riley | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kai Kamaka III | 24c | 410$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Luke Riley | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kai Kamaka III | 3c | 370.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 159 | 33.3%53 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Kai Kamaka III | 29c | 363.42$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Luke Riley | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Luke Riley | 71c | 339.97$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Luke Riley | 70c | 332.77$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed Kai Kamaka III | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 322.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kai Kamaka III | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Luke Riley | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Kai Kamaka III | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Kai Kamaka III | 33c | 299.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…653ebacked Luke Riley | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked Luke Riley | 67c | 294.44$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Luke Riley | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Luke Riley | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…d790backed Luke Riley | 67c | 270.75$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Luke Riley | 69c | 269$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ba…06b3backed Luke Riley | 73c | 267.36$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Luke Riley | 70c | 261.94$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Kai Kamaka III | 26c | 261.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Luke Riley | 67c | 260$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Kai Kamaka III | 28c | 250.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Kai Kamaka III win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Luke Riley win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.