UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e57111a2d5934a78e4ea7e5b03cf43a12528912ccf785b8e94e46b3b3a1373c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf0f…3f10backed No | 47c | 2,135$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ad…8a77backed Yes | 65c | 2,119$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 57c | 1,456$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.54 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 34c | 936.43$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.16 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 741.4$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.35 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 49c | 736.31$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.79 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 41c | 250.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.06 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…7cdbbacked No | 42c | 238.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 57c | 124.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 35c | 116$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 60c | 89.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 59c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed No | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe1…af91backed No | 44c | 48.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 329: Kai Kamaka III vs. Luke Riley (Featherweight, Prelims)Luke Riley won
- Will Kai Kamaka III win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Luke Riley win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.