TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of G2 Esports, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,792,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,032,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,792,054 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4be1…aa70backed G2 Esports54c831,720$452,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452,060.323754.1%20 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed T145c612,815$278,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334,084.5311650%58 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed T164c66,759$42,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,949.481,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed G2 Esports33c52,344$17,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,161.0269741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed T168c51,967$35,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,554.729542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed T172c40,861$29,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,345.17156.3%40 W · 31 L-9.1wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-17.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked G2 Esports25c40,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00025244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6100…ed95backed T154c35,587$19,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,304.638259.8%49 W · 33 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed G2 Esports32c34,487$11,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,034.2527637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed T168c33,475$22,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,711.936046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed T150c33,333$16,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,666.553750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked T170c31,000$21,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,189.9990348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f7…78ebbacked G2 Esports32c30,966$9,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,950.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked G2 Esports24c28,437$6,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,874.125944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked T173c27,456$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,456.293050%15 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked T168c26,427$18,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,361.035251.9%27 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed T163c23,707$14,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,778.3621144.5%94 W · 117 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed G2 Esports33c20,200$6,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,592.335448.6%172 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked T150c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0001,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked G2 Esports30c20,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,099.981,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed G2 Esports27c18,745$5,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,061.2151146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed G2 Esports30c18,079$5,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,432.7648149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b49…04a8backed T168c17,624$11,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,639.6539964.4%257 W · 142 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed T158c17,208$9,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,243.3312642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed G2 Esports32c17,000$5,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,419.9739851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed T170c15,413$10,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,619.340651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked T179c15,272$12,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,237.0559558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…12babacked G2 Esports16c14,736$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.847440.5%30 W · 44 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed T146c14,465$6,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,765.758538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b36…b103backed T172c14,000$10,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,92013360.2%80 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked T137c13,387$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,397.4912446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed G2 Esports23c12,377$2,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.1932150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed G2 Esports29c12,212$3,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,541.481,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked G2 Esports30c12,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.9730945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked T170c11,850$8,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,610.991931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed G2 Esports30c11,487$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,431.143,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked G2 Esports59c10,801$6,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,343.4367760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked G2 Esports41c10,760$4,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,376.0985742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed T145c10,500$4,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,744.991,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed G2 Esports1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed T167c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,30030845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed G2 Esports48c10,000$4,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,789.9912943.4%56 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed G2 Esports51c10,000$5,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,103.791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed G2 Esports48c9,888$4,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,702.1545248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed G2 Esports46c9,772$4,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,512.1267276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed G2 Esports30c9,619$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868.3285836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf280…d801backed T161c9,473$5,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,659.4313450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03a9…c9b1backed G2 Esports55c9,342$5,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,138.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed G2 Esports30c9,193$2,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.4519122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed G2 Esports32c9,040$2,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,886.188949.4%44 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked T140c8,952$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,382.158933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked T157c8,879$5,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,853.2953355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed T169c8,877$6,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.211,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed T170c8,707$6,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,588.151,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed T169c8,696$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,695.6516258%94 W · 68 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked T167c8,655$5,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.0832555.7%181 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd799…3395backed G2 Esports33c8,513$2,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7973458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d4d…6be9backed G2 Esports32c8,081$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,585.911650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked G2 Esports29c7,931$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30018459.8%110 W · 74 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed T159c7,847$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,247.2521347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked T168c7,500$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9929443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed T167c7,306$4,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.832,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1c…9867backed G2 Esports30c6,999$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1003630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked T171c6,945$4,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,013.9118961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked T158c6,896$3,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.57339.7%29 W · 44 L-9.3wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed T170c6,783$4,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.937948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed G2 Esports26c6,764$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.589347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked G2 Esports35c6,750$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.991,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed G2 Esports29c6,699$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.859144%40 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed T150c6,666$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3331,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed G2 Esports23c6,428$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.9940232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked G2 Esports33c6,384$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked T154c5,912$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,737.619833.7%33 W · 65 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x835c…a5eebacked G2 Esports35c5,700$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9952544%11 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffb…4fb5backed G2 Esports36c5,523$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked T135c5,390$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,485.948339.8%33 W · 50 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked G2 Esports66c5,249$3,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478.7267553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa22b…3525backed G2 Esports32c5,206$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6662722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa980…30a1backed T163c5,163$3,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.7144120%88 W · 353 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked G2 Esports51c5,114$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62524554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked G2 Esports28c5,100$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.1889050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…21d7backed G2 Esports37c5,021$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,855.925932.2%19 W · 40 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed G2 Esports1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x555f…83a0backed T168c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.992250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked T171c4,959$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460.0771057%405 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed T144c4,837$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,718.122640.7%92 W · 134 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed T168c4,734$3,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,514.8416954.4%92 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed G2 Esports30c4,587$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.7646050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed G2 Esports32c4,497$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.1127346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T157c4,267$2,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.312,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3a…130ebacked T151c4,222$2,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.4221523.3%50 W · 165 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a23…3253backed G2 Esports67c4,200$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,81410557.1%60 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed T163c4,193$2,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.4438439.8%153 W · 231 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed G2 Esports48c4,169$1,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98136943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked G2 Esports45c4,127$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.9934536.5%126 W · 219 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed T135c4,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60018132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed T171c4,000$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1607450%37 W · 37 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed G2 Esports35c4,000$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38542852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed T165c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed G2 Esports30c3,838$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.856432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.