TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$356,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$385,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,270 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecb1…5da3backed No46c118,000$54,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,279.991952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cff…59dbbacked Yes54c104,983$56,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,292.05944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dab…22e1backed Yes57c71,647$40,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,149.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No45c61,633$27,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,835.0533132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No44c38,039$16,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,553.2514551%74 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x274c…da86backed Yes54c20,370$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,370.373100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+109.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No45c13,607$6,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,183.9211761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Yes55c12,574$6,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,658.29742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Yes55c11,089$6,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,990.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd85d…3f48backed No45c10,376$4,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No45c10,010$4,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,504.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed No43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,300520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-70.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked No43c9,888$4,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,251.781450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0671…0bfebacked Yes54c9,150$4,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,178.35955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked No45c7,345$3,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,322.843435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe16e…ca0cbacked Yes54c5,746$3,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.74757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Yes57c5,263$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+69.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b9d…79eabacked Yes54c5,025$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No45c4,313$1,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.0622847.8%109 W · 119 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No47c2,569$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.923961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes53c2,222$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x726e…ff93backed Yes55c2,200$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9902100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+60.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d99…9c27backed Yes55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be2…9919backed Yes56c1,907$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a8…be5bbacked Yes56c1,907$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe8…2203backed Yes54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Yes55c1,700$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7651090%9 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.44per pick46cpaid+104.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe5ed…0b79backed Yes54c1,662$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes52c1,568$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.4417851.7%92 W · 86 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Yes54c1,561$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cab…7a73backed Yes54c1,481$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a0…dfb8backed Yes54c1,480$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…692abacked Yes54c1,475$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-46.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb772…0131backed Yes55c1,364$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.631283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e43…6583backed Yes57c1,300$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5591181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked Yes54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c05…fabfbacked No47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9320…f7d7backed Yes55c1,100$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4914057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed No45c1,074$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.32326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.4wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-51.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa676…23d6backed Yes57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf400…2f56backed Yes54c1,030$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2f…d8c2backed Yes54c999.33$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.69450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No44c999$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.568651.2%44 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf998…13f5backed Yes55c998.68$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0e8…da92backed Yes54c986.06$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.624100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+101%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1db1…35a9backed Yes56c974.89$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Yes54c940.62$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.6219152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No47c766.02$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.351250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd20b…3a20backed Yes55c750.54$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf0…a1d3backed No45c648.97$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.14933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Yes54c648.15$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.151947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes53c589.96$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Yes53c559.03$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.752748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick61cpaid-24.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes54c550$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25336755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92aa…ba77backed Yes56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3784…8e66backed No11c534$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.741258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92a…a51cbacked No47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Yes54c525.59$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.598856.8%50 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed No2c525.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-75%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Yes55c481.64$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.741030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8c…db7bbacked No45c470.53$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3430…65cdbacked No43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No45c457.08$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.261040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+79.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2aa…a277backed Yes55c454.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6423…e456backed Yes55c421.42$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes55c407.95$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f87…b872backed Yes54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0936…fb00backed No45c383.84$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No46c379.9$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.9138553.2%205 W · 180 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec7…41fabacked No47c374.22$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.37475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+99.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae37…4888backed Yes56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.141163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf48b…136fbacked Yes58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfd…fb46backed No45c310.57$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a9…97babacked Yes54c307.41$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.41850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4bf…23f6backed Yes54c300$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee9…1362backed Yes53c278.97$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.1212546.4%58 W · 67 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb72f…c2a3backed Yes55c276.55$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed8d…ff70backed Yes55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.733100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6475…bfe7backed Yes54c270.39$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…7f09backed Yes56c270$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.814052.1%73 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a83…5a43backed Yes58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.62742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes58c235.41$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.671637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Yes49c234$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c4…d0d6backed Yes54c230.56$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Yes55c227.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.271566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No46c225.3$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.131668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92b4…2487backed Yes55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.182433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-48.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ef1…614dbacked No47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7960…c924backed Yes55c211.96$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d08…9e8dbacked No44c211.96$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.262356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes54c210$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.514649.3%72 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c36…4da4backed No12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed No45c208.11$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2186…271bbacked Yes54c205.44$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+131.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed Yes51c200.32$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.233871.1%27 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13f5…7049backed Yes54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes54c199.99$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9333948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.