TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$286,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x224a…a3d5backed No78c183,809$144,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,684.7820248.5%98 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…0c76backed Yes21c142,020$30,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,297.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No77c25,138$19,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,695.5533132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03f0…679dbacked Yes22c13,759$3,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,026.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked No76c8,097$6,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.791450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No76c5,966$4,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.398551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x60c9…9e8abacked Yes24c5,747$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No76c5,300$4,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.553961.5%24 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No68c5,251$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.0811761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No73c4,836$3,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.0522548%108 W · 117 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc462…bbfdbacked Yes22c3,182$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd85d…3f48backed No71c3,061$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6305050%25 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288e…f522backed Yes22c2,613$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb1…37d1backed Yes22c2,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe134…6cf1backed Yes22c2,164$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.091361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3784…8e66backed Yes1c2,098$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.981258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309e…b473backed Yes24c2,086$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e1…d10dbacked Yes24c2,055$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7c…586abacked Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…fd2bbacked Yes21c1,993$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa16…0b36backed Yes29c1,575$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed No77c1,472$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.547150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x428e…85a4backed Yes24c1,202$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.71333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked No76c1,200$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2904153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…68acbacked No76c1,200$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac1…baddbacked No77c1,200$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9915960.4%96 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc035…ec07backed Yes25c1,088$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6950…b32abacked Yes28c1,062$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4338…2751backed Yes26c1,050$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes15c1,050$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x317a…c1efbacked Yes25c1,050$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…c9fcbacked Yes29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fcc…5f1bbacked Yes34c1,034$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56bc…a1e4backed Yes23c1,003$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3542…c838backed Yes23c980.39$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c979.16$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.134969.4%34 W · 15 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a0…dfb8backed No73c970.04$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06eb…685abacked Yes21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f25…5295backed Yes22c952.09$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No72c949.8$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.94955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdce…3ea8backed Yes24c916.67$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e17…2301backed Yes24c913.04$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.083132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes22c873.36$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.552347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ca…d535backed Yes23c869.57$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fac…7ef6backed Yes25c845.63$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.13520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No75c823.94$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.551250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7877…cdb3backed Yes29c732.86$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes27c725.43$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes25c722.57$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0626736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad9a…c3f4backed Yes21c714.29$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5299…c4e0backed Yes24c708.33$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No77c699.99$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16132545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af3…3cbfbacked Yes24c692.63$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes24c689.19$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.64643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes27c647.4$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3911545.2%52 W · 63 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Yes21c639.99$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.43129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe302…f7e0backed Yes29c636.03$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f7…9213backed Yes24c625$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa551…276dbacked Yes21c615.1$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…7f19backed Yes42c593.69$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid0%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97b0…b6e1backed Yes33c565.98$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x256a…4b8fbacked Yes29c528$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+273.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd202…5c70backed Yes21c504.76$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7039…4a7dbacked No72c492.5$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.93100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8258…2887backed Yes28c476.6$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…b9d8backed Yes21c476.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f32…8f1abacked Yes21c476.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x720f…4199backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x449e…454abacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…60b6backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0671…0bfebacked Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…18d0backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+105.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ec…3bb1backed Yes22c459.09$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes22c455.72$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.621637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ff3…d376backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4992…5b51backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002568%17 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+53.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d1e…dce8backed Yes29c435.28$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9633…d27fbacked Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1681…7372backed Yes23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Yes25c431.33$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8919152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xecb0…2329backed Yes22c430.14$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.632931%9 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee28…2b0dbacked Yes22c428.55$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9163…b85dbacked Yes23c426.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x197a…d0b2backed Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f74…769cbacked Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e31…b6ebbacked Yes24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001060%6 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+114.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7725…23eabacked Yes23c412.39$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f48…db7fbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3922…0670backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f4c…14ddbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No76c399.97$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9938353.3%204 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc24…97a4backed Yes22c394.73$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bc…b1a1backed Yes25c393.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-78.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ab…e105backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe745…5681backed Yes27c381.24$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Yes24c369.43$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.32433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47c9…5f79backed Yes21c361.1$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5925…b194backed Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.