TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc035…ec07

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 58 out of 100; worst College Football at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2025, EST1090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+34.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Lions win the NFC North?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+31.6%+$31.57
Lions vs. 49ersbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+52.7%+$105.36
Cardinals vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Broncos vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+53.8%+$53.85
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+40.8%+$40.85
Seahawks vs. Bearsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+47.1%+$47.06
Ravens vs. Texansbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST+37%+$36.99
Chiefs vs. Steelersbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST+69.5%+$69.49
Vikings vs. Seahawksbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+72.8%+$72.12
Broncos vs. Chargersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$28.81
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Rocketsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+37%+$29.6
Mavericks vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Grizzlies vs. Pelicansbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+42.9%+$42.86
Nets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Heat vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$100
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Thunder vs. Heatbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+96.1%+$96.08
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick65cpaid+18.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Notre Dame vs. Georgiabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
East Carolina vs. NC Statebacked NC State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$100
UConn vs. North Carolinabacked North Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$100
South Florida vs. San José Statebacked San José State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 4 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$797Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$232.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trudeau out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+25%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.