TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$284,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$313,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,694 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x20cc…ebc0backed Heat41c26,607$10,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,672.0415056.7%85 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed Heat67c14,762$9,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,846.0113140.5%53 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2317…c891backed Magic62c12,433$7,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,659.4711842.4%50 W · 68 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2f…bff3backed Magic53c10,034$5,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,317.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2db7…56cdbacked Heat47c10,030$4,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,315.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7896…3e00backed Heat31c6,703$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,630.992142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Heat50c6,262$3,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,156.1947542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Heat47c6,235$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,329.2272341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic75c5,406$4,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,060.643,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Magic47c5,287$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.291,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Magic43c5,049$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.4861532.2%198 W · 417 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ec…3665backed Magic68c4,999$3,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.484060%24 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…cf42backed Heat48c3,344$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.921050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcabf…c2d7backed Magic54c3,336$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Magic52c3,066$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.371,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Heat50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…1698backed Heat48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.959250%46 W · 46 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+30.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8c16…6bd1backed Magic78c2,760$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.263568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecb8…c405backed Magic77c2,748$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.343447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heat47c2,347$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.241,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed Magic50c2,183$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.638043.8%35 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Heat33c2,117$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.6913920.1%28 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Magic78c2,042$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.0136057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Heat46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08037954.1%205 W · 174 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Heat49c1,622$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.49445.7%43 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Magic54c1,468$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007142.3%30 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x721c…9bfcbacked Magic60c1,301$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.216347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Magic51c1,261$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.041,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Magic52c1,145$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.889646.9%45 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e0…ebcfbacked Magic72c1,110$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007363%46 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4e…c452backed Heat49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.893100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+91.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60a5…2da4backed Heat48c1,020$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.638040%32 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Magic52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52030251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Magic52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52016242%68 W · 94 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Magic52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Magic1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.731,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8117…3405backed Magic54c992.87$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.51060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe017…9b3abacked Heat48c987.96$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Magic71c925.3$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.4426547.9%127 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69aa…8847backed Magic59c904.54$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.363284.4%27 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+14.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d08…0080backed Magic57c900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5135330.2%16 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a7b…41b5backed Magic79c884.34$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Heat46c877.28$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.8165642.5%279 W · 377 L-2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Heat46c868.47$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.0796447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Magic12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026235.9%94 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25d…f21cbacked Magic77c823.97$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.46771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick72cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Magic25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027739.4%109 W · 168 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c6c…9047backed Magic78c752.75$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.561330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Heat42c749.99$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.491,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6109…8a3ebacked Heat32c746.16$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.043444.1%15 W · 19 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+42.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed Magic53c714$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.6816838.7%65 W · 103 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Heat48c666$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.1177745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Magic29c665.91$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8219231.3%60 W · 132 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc558…e8ccbacked Heat48c654$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.0825651.6%132 W · 124 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0e0…68a8backed Magic52c651.92$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3396750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat46c644.98$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.092,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce54…90bcbacked Magic52c632.69$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3292343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d31…2cbfbacked Heat49c632.65$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.655354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Magic64c621.43$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40045135%158 W · 293 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6153…0e04backed Magic53c609.82$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3236347.6%30 W · 33 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea0d…821cbacked Magic52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Heat43c520$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.822955.9%128 W · 101 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x938c…d5e5backed Magic51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25515237.5%57 W · 95 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Magic52c499.28$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.631,16654.4%634 W · 532 L+19.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed Magic52c480.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.112060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed Heat40c462$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9625851.6%133 W · 125 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Heat48c431.85$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8710837%40 W · 68 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3a…a95cbacked Magic52c423.08$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd07f…6c05backed Magic53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124025%10 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68b0…c482backed Heat47c399.93$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.964440.9%18 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Magic77c389.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006947.8%33 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Magic52c384.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.766160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeace…bbf3backed Magic60c374.02$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.63633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ec0…a0eabacked Magic73c343.37$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick69cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb338…ad5bbacked Heat48c333.74$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.742540%10 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b63…4cf5backed Magic53c318.87$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1694443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a4…bb49backed Heat49c316.33$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+144.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef03…e4babacked Heat48c312.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.52864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc203…74f3backed Magic73c307.96$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.8825957.5%149 W · 110 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8047…54f4backed Magic50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506743.3%29 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a69…9d47backed Magic52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5513…654fbacked Heat32c290.45$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+152.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Magic52c286$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7216160.9%98 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f05…8ad8backed Magic77c259.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Magic52c255.77$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13338942.9%167 W · 222 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Heat47c254.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7985542%359 W · 496 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f5…e936backed Magic49c249.97$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4915947.8%76 W · 83 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Magic50c239.58$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7975347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0686…9b29backed Heat48c231.09$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.09666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…8ca9backed Magic54c230.54$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x880d…720cbacked Magic53c226.04$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.840%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x935d…6cdebacked Heat49c226.02$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdff…b48ebacked Heat48c225$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x093e…0c34backed Magic53c224.53$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05a0…2aa6backed Heat47c223.4$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94e…aa85backed Magic54c223.39$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2644…8487backed Heat49c223.12$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7721…7a0ebacked Magic53c223$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa65a…65adbacked Magic54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfb…7682backed Magic54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.