TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,604
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,604 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72d6…1c32backed Yes1c11,133$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes3c8,581$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1979639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed No53c7,819$4,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.6711657.8%67 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Yes54c5,768$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101.263154.8%17 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No46c5,700$2,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,077.988750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes54c5,471$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.453961.5%24 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes39c5,360$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,073.9542043.8%184 W · 236 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No47c4,564$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.7732037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe256…12f8backed Yes54c2,767$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.21450%7 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No56c2,752$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.9928355.5%157 W · 126 L+17.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes51c2,176$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.8929643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No46c2,000$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.9590751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed Yes27c1,987$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.564959.2%29 W · 20 L+6.6wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+41.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcac2…d644backed Yes53c1,706$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.69955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No46c1,669$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.0816660.8%101 W · 65 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes54c1,600$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86044939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1394…e426backed No47c1,575$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.751650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No45c1,533$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.3222744.5%101 W · 126 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No47c1,530$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.156453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Yes27c1,404$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.7837841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes16c1,283$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8211342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes55c1,273$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2c…1b43backed Yes13c1,182$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-78.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b5c…f96fbacked Yes54c1,166$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.03520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-56.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe0…2a58backed Yes44c1,148$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed No49c1,111$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.616959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No47c1,070$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.146253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Yes58c896.38$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.463161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Yes55c866.75$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.711442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ad…705ebacked Yes44c852.27$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8769…48ecbacked No57c830.54$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.014252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes5c800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No49c749.9$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.4541437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa1…637bbacked No46c700$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3785644.6%25 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabe4…1996backed Yes30c660.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadff…e3f3backed Yes52c648.19$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x559e…7fe2backed Yes55c624.89$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.695352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc92…26b9backed Yes54c611.61$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes13c559.65$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2779650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes53c559.51$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.5414659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Yes55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013336.1%48 W · 85 L-12.7wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x85c3…269bbacked No48c520$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.44362.8%27 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No49c510.98$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.63762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed Yes19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955131.4%16 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2707651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2651723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc133…bdf0backed Yes53c462.53$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.141040%4 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-36.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c60…45b8backed Yes8c431.56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7360%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ef8…eff3backed No45c414.27$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.853946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No57c409.62$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.977336.4%281 W · 492 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eae…f263backed Yes51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009037.8%34 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x969e…56aabacked Yes44c386.36$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe8…fcabbacked Yes56c382.25$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.062944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes54c370.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002450%12 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2a0…3d33backed Yes53c357.11$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.27130%0 W · 13 L-6.0wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x60a5…2da4backed No46c355.04$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.722142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9e…d9f9backed No46c343.39$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.587967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0bb…9702backed No52c341.47$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.966838.2%26 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes3c326.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.133432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes52c312.75$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.637034.3%24 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf44d…68acbacked No47c265.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.963735.1%13 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No46c252.74$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7946660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1c96backed Yes16c250$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-48.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68b0…c482backed Yes41c245.24$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x722c…515fbacked Yes53c243.58$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.13243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No80c243.34$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6637652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf112…21ebbacked Yes55c243.32$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.975046%23 W · 27 L-7.2wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-28.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb928…c534backed Yes10c242.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Yes55c220$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015347.7%73 W · 80 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed No46c220$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4436259.1%214 W · 148 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe34…cf4cbacked No46c220$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.447968.4%54 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f0a…e4eabacked Yes53c216.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11550%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x26db…b66cbacked Yes53c203.8$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0140%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8a4…17d0backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x578a…ef44backed No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082536%9 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd82a…94c3backed Yes51c194.12$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbf…de7bbacked Yes55c182.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002425%6 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc035…ec07backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf725…136abacked Yes55c181.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91450%7 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7e4…7319backed Yes44c170.55$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Yes55c166.55$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.63151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x732b…85f4backed Yes52c160.21$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.312133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No49c157.61$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4366031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe480…a9a4backed Yes55c148.02$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.411553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes53c140$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.29858.2%57 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No45c132.09$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6560557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3d3…6beebacked No47c127.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1410…d50ebacked Yes27c124.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73af…4fc0backed Yes55c119.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No48c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.216737.7%63 W · 104 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Yes55c109.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605635.7%20 W · 36 L-9.0wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x02a0…acfabacked Yes55c107.89$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8308…75d3backed Yes15c103.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5142755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d8c…726cbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…b756backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb680…c893backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0795…be42backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.